摘要
从国家层次和年尺度阐明影响我国单季稻种植区分布的主导气候因子,揭示我国单季稻种植区的潜在分布及其气候适宜性,可为我国优化单季稻生产布局、改进种植制度和引种提供科学依据.本文从国家层次和年尺度选取影响我国单季稻分布的潜在气候因子,利用其地理分布信息,结合最大熵模型和ArcGIS的空间分析功能,阐明影响我国单季稻分布的主导气候因子并构建我国单季稻分布与气候的关系模型.结果表明:影响我国单季稻潜在种植区分布的主导气候因子是年降水量、湿润指数和稳定通过18℃日数,它们对单季稻分布的累积贡献率达到了潜在气候因子的94.5%;基于主导气候因子和单季稻种植点分布的地理信息,结合最大熵模型构建的我国单季稻种植区分布与气候的关系模型能够很好地模拟我国单季稻种植区的潜在分布.根据待预测区单季稻的存在概率,明确了我国单季稻种植区潜在分布的气候低、中、高适宜区和气候不适宜区,并分析了各气候适宜区的气候特征.
To clarify the leading climate factors affecting the distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China at national and annual temporal scales and to reveal the potential distribution and climatic suitability divisions of this planting region in China could not only provide scientific basis for optimizing the allocation of single cropping rice production,modifying planting pattern,and introducing fine varieties,but also ensure the food security of China.In this paper,the potential climate factors affecting the single cropping rice distribution in China at regional and annual scales were selected from related literatures,and the single cropping rice geographic information from the national agro-meteorological observation stations of China Meteorological Administration （CMA）,together with the maximum entropy model （MaxEnt） and spatial analyst function of ArcGIS software,were adopted to clarify the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China,and to construct a model about the relationships between the potential distribution of the planting region and the climate.The results showed that annual precipitation,moisture index,and days of not less than 18 ℃ stably were the leading climate factors affecting the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China,with their cumulative contribution rate reached 94.5% of all candidate climate factors.The model constructed in this paper could well simulate the potential distribution of single cropping rice planting region in China.According to the appearance frequency,the low,medium and high climatic suitability divisions of single cropping rice planting region in China were clarified,and the climate characteristics of the planting region in each climatic suitability division were analyzed.
出处
《应用生态学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2012年第2期426-432,共7页
Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology
基金
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2010CB951303)
公益性行业(农业)科研专项(200903003)
中国气象局经常性业务经费资助
关键词
单季稻
潜在分布
气候适宜性
主导气候因子
最大熵模型
single cropping rice
potential distribution
climatic suitability
leading climate factor
maximum entropy model （MaxEnt）.
作者简介
段居琦，男，1982年生，博士研究生．主要从事生态与农业气象研究．E—mail：duanjq09@163．com
通讯作者．E-mail：gszhou@ibcas．ac．cn
