摘要
利用AHP和德尔菲技术构建评价模型,并采用2000—2009年的数据对江西省农业可持续发展进行实证分析。结果表明,江西省农业呈现可持续发展态势,从影响江西省农业可持续发展的准则层来看,社会子系统和经济子系统对江西省农业可持续发展具有显著性正效应,10年间平均发展速度分别为1.197 4与1.108 3;资源子系统正效应较小,为1.023 0;技术子系统保持平稳,为1.001;而生态子系统出现负效应,为0.977 2。针对结构性矛盾,提出了改善农业投入结构,加强农田水利建设,提高农业复种指数等政策建议。
Based on AHP and Delphi, the paper analyses agricultural sustainable development in Jiangxi Province with data collected between 2000 and 2009. The results show that Jiangxi＇ s agriculture is enjoying a sustainable development. Sustainable development of Jiangxi＇ s agriculture was positively affected by both social subsystem and economic subsystem, whose average growth rate reached 1.1974 and 1.1083 respectively while the average rate for the last 10 years was 1.0547. The positive effect of resource subsystem and technical subsystem tended to be smaller, which were 1.023 0 and 1.001, respectively;but ecological system had a negative effect,which was 0.9772. Based on these structural contradictions, some policies were proposed to improve agriculture investment structure, intensify farmland irrigation and water conservancy, raise the multiple crop index , etc.
出处
《江西农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
2011年第4期50-54,共5页
Journal of Jianxi Agricultural University :Social Sciences Edition
基金
江西省农业厅软科学项目(2010SP)
江西省软科学项目
关键词
农业可持续发展
指标体系
政策建议
agricultural sustainable development
indicator systems
policy proposal
作者简介
蔡波（1976-），男，讲师，硕士，主要从事农业经济研究，E-mail：caibokeyan@163.com。
