摘要
为保障大庆市的生态安全,该文在生态风险评价和预测的基础上建立了生态风险预警模型。首先利用生态风险指数计算方法和地统计分析方法,对大庆市1976—2003年生态风险相对状况进行了同顾性评价。并在此基础上,利用3次回归模型、灰色预测模型和人工神经网络预测模型进行变权组合预测,对大庆市2010年生态风险分布情况进行了预测研究。然后根据2010年大庆市5个区各采样点的生态风险预测值和已经确定的2010年生态风险值与预警标准之间的关系,得到2010年各采样点处的生态风险等级,利用空间插值方法编制了大庆市2010年生态风险预警图。结果表明,大庆市的高生态风险区主要分布于市区内居民集中的地区及其附近区域,主要为交通用地、耕地和居民用地。中级风险区主要分布于大庆市各区周边的过渡地带,土地利用类型主要为未利用地,还有小部分的耕地和水域。低级风险区主要分布于大庆市周边和中级风险区的相邻地带,土地利用类型主要为林地、牧草地和水域。根据分析结果,提出了大庆市生态风险管理措施,如加强宣传教育、制定污染物治理对策、运用规划手段、建立生态风险评价管理系统等。
To safeguard the ecological security of Daqing City,northeastern China,an ecological risk warning model was established based on the ecological risk assessment and forecast.First,the relative condition of ecological risk from 1976 to 2003 in Daqing was assessed with ecological risk index and ArcGIS Geostatistical analysis. Using cubic regression forecast,gray forecast and artificial neural network forecast models to conduct changeable weight combination forecast,the status of ecological risk distribution in Daqing in 2010 was forecast.According to the ecological risk forecast value of sampling points of five areas in Daqing and the relationship between determined ecological risk value and standard of warning,ecological risk ranks of various sampling points in 2010 were obtained.Ecological risk warning chart of Daqing was established using the spatial interpolation method.Results illustrate that high ecological risk areas are mainly distributed in the inhabitant concentrated region or nearby.The land types are of transportation,farm land and inhabitation.The moderate risk area locates in the transitional regions of the districts in Daqing.The land types are unutilized land,some small part of cropland and water areas.The preliminary risk areas are distributed in peripheral zones connecting moderate risk areas.Its land types are forest land,grassland and water areas.Then, countermeasures such as strengthening propaganda and education,formulating pollutant control scheme, applying reasonable plan,and establishing management system of ecological risk assessment are proposed.
出处
《北京林业大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第S1期152-156,共5页
Journal of Beijing Forestry University
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(40771195)
中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所学科前沿领域项目(KZXC3-SW-NA3-39)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(ZTF2005-32)
关键词
生态风险
预警
管理对策
3S
技术
ecological risk
warning
management countermeasure,3S technology
