摘要
简介了贝叶斯分析的基本原理，综述了它在水文水资源系统中考虑不确定性和风险的特点及其在径流预报、洪水分析与地区综合、水资源规划与管理等问题中的应用，并分析了其发展前景，着重指出将灰色先验分布、模糊似然函数在贝叶斯定理框架中耦合的综合途径．
The paper introduces briefly the basic principles of Bnyesian analysis,reviews its applications to uncertainty analysis and decision making in runoff forecasts,flood analysis and regionalization, water resources planning andmanagement, etc., presents the recommendations for further researches, and provides emphatically the authors' combination approach that integrates grey prior distributionand fuzzy likelihood function into a Bzyesian framework
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
1994年第3期242-247,共6页
Advances in Water Science
基金
博士点基金
关键词
贝叶斯分析
水文分析
水资源
Bayesian analysis
uncertainty
risk
grey prior distribution
fuzzy likelihood function
grey fuzzy posterior distribution.
