摘要
研究准确预测油层,起到保护油层的作用。针对预测油气层保护方案的复杂性和不稳定性,为了解决目前油层敏感性预测中因经验判断和室内实验带来的盲目性和耗时长问题,提出了一种模糊专家系统的油层敏感性预测方法,实现了对油层敏感性的高效、精确预测。采用信用统计法提取影响敏感性的特性指标,根据模糊集合理论将油层敏感性数据分类并构建知识库,通过构建隶属函数及模糊规则匹配实现对油层敏感性的预测。仿真结果表明,所建立的油层敏感性预测在大港油田多口井上定量预测准确率平均为83.43%,预测效率高、结果准确可靠,有效地提高了油层保护措施优化决策的科学性和准确性,为编制油气层保护方案提供了依据。
Reservoir sensitivity forecasting has important influence on preparing the project of reservoir protection. Aim at the blindness and time-consuming for forecasting reservoir sensitivity in reservoir protection, this paper studies a method for forecasting reservoir sensitivity based on fuzzy expert system. First, we extract the characteristic index by credit statistical method. Then, we classify the reservoir sensitivity data by fuzzy set theory. At last, by means of building subordinate function and fuzzy rule match, we realize the fast, accurate and quantificational evaluation and diagnosis for reservoir sensitivity, and the result is better. The test result shows that, the method of reservoir sensitiv- ity evaluation and diagnosis has been applied to ten wells in Dagang oilfield, and the precision rate of quantitative forecasting is about 87.27 %. The fuzzy expert system is high in forecasting efficiency and exact in finally result, en- hancing scientific and accuralize decision for reservoir protection. The method for evaluating and diagnosing reservoir sensitivity based on fuzzy expert system plays an important role in oilfield development.
出处
《计算机仿真》
CSCD
北大核心
2011年第9期322-326,共5页
Computer Simulation
基金
国家科技重大专项(2009ZX05009-005)
关键词
敏感性预测
模糊专家系统
模糊推理
人工智能
油层保护
Reservoir sensitivity evaluation and diagnosis
Fuzzy expert systems
Fuzzy reasoning
Artificial intel-ligence
Reservoir protection
作者简介
杨华庆（1974一），男（汉族），山东聊城人，硕士，讲师，主要研究方向：网络安全、计算机技术应用。
