摘要
人口老龄化已成为21世纪江苏省面临的巨大挑战。本文基于2005年1%人口抽样调查以及第五次人口普查等数据资料,在对总和生育率预测设定的基础上,运用Leslie矩阵方程对分年龄人口进行预测,进而得到2010—2050年江苏省65岁及以上人口数量以及占总人口比例、80岁及以上人口数量以及占总人口比例等人口老龄化有关指标预测值,藉此剖析了江苏省人口老龄化水平高、速度快、高龄化现象严重、未来人口老龄化阶段性明显等特征。
Population aging constitutes a big challenge Jiangsu Province has to meet in the 21^st century. According to the one-percent sample census in 2005 and the fifth national population census and on the basis of the prediction about the total birth rate, we made a predietion about the development of different sub-age populations in Jiangsu by using Leslie matrix equation, in particular about the 65-and-older and 80-and-older populations and their respective proportions in the total population of this province over the period from 2010 to 2050. In so doing, we have found that the population aging in Jiangsu is characterized by its big volume, high speed, the large proportion of very aged people, and a growing trend towards an aging society.
出处
《南京师大学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第3期46-50,共5页
Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Social Science Edition)
基金
江苏省社科基金项目(07EYB044)
关键词
江苏省
人口老龄化
人口预测
Jiangsu Province
population aging
population prediction
作者简介
黄健元，博士，河海大学公共管理学院教授，博士生导师210098
