摘要
基于1981-2005年陕西省经济发展和城乡统筹的统计数据,运用主成分分析法、H-P滤波法、协整分析法、Granger因果关系检验法和脉冲响应分析法分析陕西省经济发展与城乡统筹之间的互动关系。结果表明,短期内陕西省经济发展与城乡统筹存在单向因果关系,长期内陕西省经济发展与城乡统筹之间存在互为因果关系。经济发展并不会自发导致城乡差距的缩小,而且在中长期内还会进一步加大城乡差距;短期内城乡统筹水平对经济发展的影响不显著,几乎不存在冲击效应。
Based on the statistical data of economic development and overall planning of urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province during 1981--2005, using the method of the principal component analysis, Hodrick Prescott filter, co--integration analysis, Granger causality test and impulse response functions, the interaction on economic development and overall planning of urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province was analyzed in this paper. The results show that there exists a short-run one-way causal relationship between economic development and overall planning of urban and rural areas in Shaanxi Province, and in the long run there exists a cause-effect relationship between them. Economic growth does not automatically lead to harmonious relations between urban and rural areas, but broadens further the urban-- rural gaps in long term on the one hand. At the same time, urban--rural interactions have no obvious influence on economic development in short term. Especially, during the short time, there is almost no lash effect.
出处
《地理与地理信息科学》
CSCD
北大核心
2008年第5期66-69,共4页
Geography and Geo-Information Science
基金
陕西省教育厅基金项目(05JK310)
咸阳师范学院重点课程(200712010)
关键词
经济发展
城乡统筹Granger检验
脉冲响应
economic development
overall planning of urban and rural areas
Granger--causality test
impulse response
作者简介
韩申山（1970-），男，硕士，副教授，主要从事农业经济研究。E-mail：xyhshsh@163．com.
