摘要
本文综述了全球变化研究中土地利用和土地覆盖变化（ＬＵＣＣ）的主要模型，重点介绍了植被模型和引入社会驱动力的ＬＵＣＣ模型，并归纳出ＬＵＣＣ模型的以下发展趋势：①新一代的ＬＵＣＣ模型应该能够模拟ＬＵＣＣ的主要社会经济和自然驱动力，包括从ＬＵＣＣ到驱动力和全球变化的主要反馈关系；②具有明确的空间关系，能够以适当的空间分辨率，比较好地预测长期的（５０～１００ａ）土地利用和覆盖变化及有关的生物物理参数，如植被特征、资源的积聚和退化等；③能够更好地认识ＬＵＣＣ与其主要驱动力之间的关系在局地、区域和全球尺度上的动态和后果；充分考虑土地利用和覆盖变化对政策、技术进步、人口增长、经济发展、市场变化等社会变量的灵敏性，此外，还应注意意识、信仰等文化因素的影响；④发展新的ＬＵＣＣ建模方法，使ＬＵＣＣ模型能够与其它类型的全球变化模型，特别是气候模型建立联系。
his paper gives a comprehensive description of the main models of land use and land cover change (LUCC) in global change studies with particular attention to vegetation models and the models which consider social driving forces. The main trends of LUCC modeling are:(a) Future LUCC models should be able to simulate the major socialeconomic and physical driving forces of land use and land cover change,including the major feedback relations from LUCC to driving force sand global change.(b) The models are geographically explicit.With appropriate spatial resolution they can predict the long period (50-100 years) LUCC and associated biophysical parameters, such as vegetation attributes and resource accumulation and degradation.(c) The models can improve our understanding of the local, regional, and global dynamics and consequences of the relationships between LUCC and its main driving forces,and make us consider the sensitivity of land use and land cover change to exogenous variables ( e.g., policy,technological progress, population growth, economic development, market change, and some cultural factors, such as attitudes and values).(d) New methods of LUCC modeling will be developed, which can link LUCC models with other global change models, especially with climatic models.
出处
《自然资源学报》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第2期169-175,共7页
Journal of Natural Resources
