摘要
讨论了浦东铁路开行市郊列车的客流需求预测问题,为浦东铁路是否开行市郊列车、如何开行市郊列车方案提供依据。通过对浦东铁路沿线的居民出行调查得到浦东铁路的站间客流分布现状;在此基础上,利用沿线土地和人口发展规划,建立方式划分模型对未来5年及10年的市郊铁路客流进行预测;分析了市郊列车起终点站、发车频率、行车组织、交通衔接等因素对客流预测结果的影响。
This paper discusses the demand forecasting of the running commuter trains on Pudong Railway in Shanghai. Surveying the inhabitant trips along the railway, the author analyzes the present passenger volume distribution at each station of Pudong Railway; then based on the land use and population development along the railway, builds a mode choice model to forecast the commuter rail passenger volume in the next 5-10 years; finally discusses factors such as the origin ＆ destination stations, the headways, the train running organization and traffic joint. etc., because they have influences on the result of passerger forecasting.
出处
《城市轨道交通研究》
2008年第2期49-52,共4页
Urban Mass Transit
关键词
浦东铁路
市郊列车
客流调查
Pudong Railway
suburban passenger train
passenger flow investigation
作者简介
总经理，高级工程师
