摘要
从运营需要出发,提出客流预测的年限和内容;通过对客流量级的阐述,分析客流预测三级数据,确定运营的规模;根据OD(起讫点)客流分析来研究行车交路,做出满载率和拥挤度的评价;最终确定车辆编组与行车密度的合理组合,形成系统全面的技术方案,使客流预测更好地为运营组织服务。
Time limits and contents of passenger flow prediction are proposed from the demands of operation. Extent of operation is determined through the description of passenger flow amount and the analysis of the three-class data of passenger flow prediction. Evaluation for the load factor and crowd degree is performed on the basis of OD （Origin and Destination） passenger flow analysis incorporating the study of traffic round trip. In the end, the reasonable combination of carriage composition with traffic intensity is determined, with the comprehensive technological scheme of the system formulated, so that passenger flow prediction can serve operation organization well.
出处
《都市快轨交通》
2007年第3期3-7,共5页
Urban Rapid Rail Transit
关键词
城市轨道交通
客流预测
运行组织
舒适度
拥挤度
满载率
urban rail transit
passenger flow prediction
operation organization
easiness
crowd degree
load factor
作者简介
沈景炎，男，原副院长，教授级高级工程师
