摘要
本文对我国到2010年如何实现GDP能源强度比"十五"末期降低20%左右的目标进行了定量化的系统分析,提出大体上1/3可依靠产业结构调整和轻重工业结构调整,1/3可依靠提高能源转换和利用效率,1/3可依靠产业技术升级和产品增加值率的提高以及对居民生活能源消费的正确引导来实现的分析结论。同时还对未来不同GDP增长速度对实现目标的影响进行了分析和评价,GDP增长速度越快,越有利于GDP能源强度下降目标的实现,但期末能源总消费量的增长也会越大。
The Chinese government has recently set a target of reducing energy consumption intensity by 20% during the 11^th Five - Year - Plan period （ 2006 - 2010 ）. This paper has carried out a quantitative analysis of the major factors affecting China＇s energy consumption and ways to achieve the target. The study shows that the readjustment of industry structure and the share of heavy and light industry, increasing energy conversion and utilization efficiency, and upgrading the value of products and improving the residents＇energy consumption mode will play the important role in achieving the target of reducing 20% energy consumption intensity, contributing one third respectively. The paper has also analyzed the impacts of GDP growth on the target, and concluded that a higher GDP growth rate is more conducive to achieve the target whereas increasing the total amount of energy consumption at the end of the period.
出处
《中国软科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2006年第4期33-38,共6页
China Soft Science
基金
国家自然科学基金重点项目(90410016)
教育部人文社科基地重大项目(05JJD630035)
作者简介
何建坤（1945-），男，河北安平人，清华大学现代管理研究中心教授，博士生导师。
