摘要
由于对国民经济具有明显的乘数带动效应,因此房地产业既可以拉动经济增长,也可能导致经济过热,进而常常成为政府宏观调控的首选对象和是否成功的主要标志之一。本文对中国房地产市场发展概况进行了简要分析,介绍了有关泡沫的经济学基本理论和研究,以及中国房地产市场是否存在泡沫的争论。在此基础上,本文重新定义了房地产基本价值、投机泡沫和泡沫度,并利用中国房地产的相关数据,对中国房地产基本价值、投机泡沫和泡沫度进行了实际计算,得出了中国房地产泡沫已经产生、而且比较严重的结论,并解释了中国房地产投机泡沫产生的主要原因。最后,提出了挤出房地产泡沫的若干政策,并特别指出,地方政府对中央政府的有关政策能否“上令下达,不打埋伏”是挤出房地产市场泡沫的关键所在。
Because of the noticeable multiplier effect of real estate investment upon the national economy, the real estate industry can pull economic growth or leads to economic overheating; hence often the first target of the government in macro economic control and adjustment and one of the main marks that indicate success or failure. In this paper, we have made a brief analysis of the development of China's housing and land market, and introduced the basics of bubble economics and the studies thereof on the one hand, and on the other the contention about whether there exist bubbles in China's real property markets. And on that basis, we have redefined the basic value of real estate (BVORE), the speculation bubble (SB) and bubble degree (BD); by using the related data on China's land and building industry, literally reckoned up (not estimated, nor guessed) the BVORE, SB and BD of China's real estate; concluded that the bubbles of China's real estate industry have appeared and that this situation is grave; and accounted for the main causes for the occurrence of SB in China's real estate industry.At the end of the paper, we have offered several policies for removing real estate bubbles, and especially pointed out that the key to 'squeezing' the bubbles out of real estate markets is that the local governments must completely carry out the relative policies made by the center government.
出处
《管理世界》
CSSCI
北大核心
2005年第12期71-84,共14页
Journal of Management World
