摘要
研究了基于网络计划活动的时间、费用是随机分布,且活动持续时间上费用分配(时间—费用模型)非均匀分布的工期固定—单资源(投资资金)均衡优化问题。对时间和费用具有不确定性的网络计划进行Monte-Carlo仿真以及仿真输出的统计分析,获得了n次仿真输出结果的代表性样本。以代表性样本的仿真输出数据构造一个确定性网络计划,并根据实际情况假定该确定性网络计划各活动持续时间上费用的分配服从Weibull分布,由此在整个周期内迭加得到一个多峰的Weibill时间—费用模型。最后,采用启发式的“削峰填谷法”对呈现“高峰”和“低谷”落差很大的,具有很强的不均衡性Weibill时间—费用模型进行均衡优化,得到了一个较为均衡的投资强度分布。
The optimization of Network Scheduling concerning the fixed completion time - resource leveling was studied, The time and cost of Network Scheduling activities are probabilistic, and the time-cost model isn＇t uniform distribution, A Monte-Carlo simulation model of Network Scheduling was established, and simulation output data of time and cost were analyzed. The methods for statistical analysis of getting a representative sample were studied. A Determinate Network Scheduling was constructed according to the representative sample of the simulation output data. The time-cost model of the determinate Network Scheduling activities was assumed as Weibull distribution, and a multi-apex Weibull time-cost model was presented counting the cost of every activity in the same time during the life time. Finally, the heuristic method of leveling resource need peak was studied, and a more leveling time-cost distribution model was gained.
出处
《系统仿真学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2005年第10期2500-2503,2516,共5页
Journal of System Simulation
基金
航空科学基金项目(02J51074)
作者简介
徐哲（1964-），女，江苏省无锡市人，副教授，博士生，研究方向为系统仿真、项目管理；
李科（1979-），男，黑龙江省木兰县人，硕士生．研究方向为项目管理；
刘荣（1977-），女，河南省开封市人，硕士生，研究方向为项目管理。
