摘要
以累计观测的径流量数据绘出平均径流波动图形,n条阈直线(ξi)与图形的交点至原点的测度构成建模的原始数据,即n个数列。对n个数列做IGO变形,求出紧邻均值生成序列,建立GM(1,1)模型。用matlab程序计算时间响应函数得到还原值。通过残差精度的大小选出平均流量最可能出现的年份,按时间顺序绘出水库径流在未来一定时期内的趋势图。
Based on the accumulated observing flow data to reservoir,the average flow wave figure was displayed. The distance measurement that is the crosses of n field lines and the wave flow figure to the origin make up the pre-data,namely,n-dimension sequence. The number of every sequence was accumulated and the new sequence was generated(AGO). By use of the AGO consecutive neighbors sequences,the mean sequence was generated. Meanwhile,the G M(1,1) was modeled. The time response function matrix was treated by matlab program and the restored value was obtained. The years that the average flow is disappear mostly are selected by the remainder precision. The flow trend figure for the future is the curve,which is the coordinate connection of time(year) and the average flow quantity in the time order.
出处
《长春工程学院学报（自然科学版）》
2004年第1期1-4,共4页
Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology：Natural Sciences Edition
关键词
灰色系统理论
拓扑预测
径流趋势
gray system theory
analysissitus prediction
flow trend
作者简介
裴向军(1963,10-),男(蒙),内蒙,博士后,副教授 主要研究地基处理,病险水库损伤机理及评价体系,(0431)5680109.
