摘要
目的通过分析2009~2013年每季度门诊人次变化趋势,找到季节指数,预测2014年各季度门诊人次。方法运用趋势季节模型建立预测回归方程。结果预测2014年全年门诊人次143.74万人次,预测2014年前两个季度门诊人次正确率97.64%。结论本例预测效果满意,趋势季节预测方法对加强门诊管理有帮助。
Objective Through the analysis of 2009~2013 per quarter outpatient visits change trend,find seasonal index,predicted in 2014 outpatient visits each quarter.Methods Using the trend season model to predict the regression equation.Results The forecast 2014 1.4374 mil ion outpatient visits,a predicted 2014 years ago two quarter outpatient visits accuracy 97.64%.Conclusion The prediction ef ect of this example is satisfied,seasonal trend prediction method is helpful to strengthen the management of outpatient service.
作者
费杨华
韩嘉
黄成光
FEI Yang-hua;HAN Jia;HUANG Cheng-guang(Department of Operations Management,Deyang People's Hospital,Deyang 618000,Sichuan,China)
关键词
门诊人次
季节变化
趋势预测
Outpatients
Seasonal variation
Trend forecast
