摘要
在内部需求疲软和外部不确定性双重压力叠加的经济下行阶段,"稳就业"成为维持社会经济稳定运行的首要任务。本文将2011年《社会保险法》的出台视为一项准自然实验,以2007—2016年非金融类上市公司为研究样本,采用双重差分方法系统考察了社会保险缴费对企业劳动力雇佣决策的影响。结果显示,社会保险缴费增加显著降低了企业劳动力雇佣增长率,而且该效应在劳动密集型、融资约束严重、税收征管力度大以及成本转嫁能力弱的企业更为凸显。进一步的作用机制检验发现,《社会保险法》限制企业劳动力雇佣能力的核心逻辑在于流动性约束效应,而非要素相对价格调整引致的"替代效应",具体表现为:现金持有显著减少、应付账款显著增加、股利支付规模显著下降,以及现金持有—现金流敏感度显著上升,但固定资产投资显著下降且资本密集度未发生显著改变。此外,在《社会保险法》出台之后,企业的经营绩效和债务规模显著下降以及经营风险显著上升,但"激励效应"促使企业研发创新得到显著提升。本文结论表明,在下调社会保险法定缴费率时,政府部门无须过分担心劳动力价格下降对固定资产投资的"挤出效应",这为采取"降费"手段以支持企业稳定就业岗位提供了理论基础和经验支持。
In the economic downturn period with weak internal demand and high external uncertainty,stabilizing employment is the primary task for Chinese government.In this paper,we take the enactment of the Social Insurance(SI)Law in 2011 as a quasi-natural experiment,and then utilize the differences-in-differences method to examine the impact of social security contributions on corporate hiring decisions using the data of nonfinancial listed companies from 2007 to 2016.The results show that increasing social security contributions significantly reduces labor employment growth,and this effect is more profound for firms with higher labor intensity,more severe financing constraints,stronger tax enforcement and weaker cost-transfer ability.Furthermore,the mechanism tests find that the liquidity constraint effect rather than the substitution effect dominates the negative nexus between the SI Law and corporate hiring decisions.Specifically,decreasing cash holdings and dividend payment as well as increasing accounts payable and cash holdings-cash flow sensitivity are consistent with the liquidity constraint channel,while decreasing fixed asset investment and invariant capital intensity exclude the substitution channel.In addition,after the passage of the SI Law,firms’business performance and new debt issuance decrease,and the operating risk and innovation activities increase.Overall,our findings suggest that governments do not need to be too anxious about the crowding-out effect of labor price reduction on fixed asset investment when lowering the legal rate of social security contributions,providing theoretical foundation and empirical support for adopting fee reduction to support firms to stabilize employment.
作者
刘贯春
叶永卫
张军
LIU Guan-chun;YE Yong-wei;ZHANG Jun(Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;School of Public Economics and Administration,SHUFE,Shanghai 200433,China;School of Economics,Fudan University,Shanghai 200433,China)
出处
《中国工业经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期152-169,共18页
China Industrial Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目“人力资本偏向金融部门的形成逻辑及实体经济增长效应研究”(批准号72003116)
上海市“晨光”计划项目“金融部门的人力资本配置与实体企业‘短贷长投’之谜”(批准号19CG40)
国家社会科学基金重大项目“我国经济发展新常态的趋势性特征及政策取向研究”(批准号15ZDA008)
关键词
社会保险缴费
流动性约束
稳就业
创新效应
social security contributions
liquidity constraint
stabilize employment
innovation effect
作者简介
刘贯春,中山大学岭南学院副教授,博士生导师,经济学博士;通讯作者:叶永卫,上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院博士研究生,电子邮箱:yeyongweivip@163.com;张军,复旦大学经济学院教授,博士生导师,经济学博士。
