摘要
以浙江省为研究对象,分别以逐步回归模型、GM(1,1)、指数平滑模型3个单一模型进行浙江省2020年—2024年的城乡收入差距预测,再通过基于不同最优性准则的诱导有序加权算术平均(IOWA)组合预测模型进行预测,使得结果更加精确。通过预测得到结论:经济发展、增加财政支出和产业结构升级都会对城乡收入差距的增加产生正向影响;基于不同最优性准则下的IOWA组合预测模型在样本期内的预测精度和控制误差的能力均高于单一的预测模型;2020年—2024年,浙江省城乡居民收入差距仍将不断扩大,但年增速将有所放缓。最后就缩小城乡收入差距提出建议:推进农业现代化;加快新农村建设;提高农村居民的人力资本;调整财政支出结构。
In this paper,Zhejiang Province is taken as the research object,the stepwise regression model,GM(1,1),exponential smoothing method are used to forecast the urban-rural income gap in 2020-2024 in Zhejiang Province China.And then paper build the IOWA combined forecasting model based on different optimal criteria to make the results more accurate.The results indicate that industrial structure,increase in fiscal expenditure and economic development have positive effects on the increase of the urban-rural income gap.Based on different optimal criteria,the forecasting precision and the ability of controlling error of IOWA combined forecasting model are higher than that of single forecasting model in the sample period.And the urban-rural income gap will continue to widen in 2020-2024 in Zhejiang Province,but annual growth will slow.Finally,the paper raises some suggestions on how to reduce the urban-rural income gap:to promote agricultural modernization,to speed up the construction of new rural areas,to improve the human capital of rural residents,and to adjust the structure of financial expenditure.
作者
周铁宁
ZHOU Tie-ning(School of Statistics And Applied Mathematics,Anhui University of Finance&Economics,Bengbu Anhui 233000,China)
出处
《长春工程学院学报（自然科学版）》
2021年第1期111-117,123,共8页
Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology：Natural Sciences Edition
作者简介
周铁宁(1996-),男(汉),浙江绍兴人,硕士,主要研究宏观经济统计。
