摘要
人口红利有条件可持续增长是我国人口发展新形势下的必然结论,对于加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。面对人口红利与经济发展相关关系的时代之问,为实现我国人口红利的可持续增长,进而支撑经济在战略机遇期内实现高质量发展,关键应把握好四大关系:人口红利与教育结构的关系,人才供给与产业升级的关系,老龄人口与长寿经济的关系,人力资本投入与产出的关系。在此基础上,应制定和实施八项政策对策,即人口政策解决总量问题,教育政策解决结构问题,老年政策解决存量问题,消费政策解决增量问题,投入政策解决质量问题,就业政策解决红利问题,科技政策解决动力问题,财政政策解决潜力问题。通过多个方面综合发力,实现我国人口红利有条件可持续增长。
The conditional sustained growth of the demographic dividend is an inevitable conclusion under the new situation of China’s population development.It has important theoretical value and practical significance for accelerating the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles mutually promoting each other.In order to achieve the sustained growth of China’s demographic dividend and to support the high-quality development of the economy during the period of strategic opportunity,the key is to grasp the four major relationships:demographic dividend and educational structure,talent supply and industrial upgrading,aging population and longevity economy,human capital input and output.On this basis,eight policy countermeasures should be formulated and implemented,namely,population policy to solve the total problem,education policy to solve the structural problem,old age policy to solve the stock problem,consumption policy to solve the incremental problem,investment policy to solve the quality problem,employment policy to solve dividend issues,science and technology policy to solve the problem of power,fiscal policy to solve the potential problem.
作者
刘春阳
马洪范
Liu Chunyang;Ma Hongfan
出处
《财政研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第6期119-129,共11页
Public Finance Research
关键词
人口红利
第二次人口红利
人力资本
宏观治理
高质量发展
Demographic Dividend
Second Demographic Dividend
Human Capital
Macro Governance
High-Quality Development
作者简介
通讯作者:刘春阳,中国人民大学财政金融学院博士研究生,电子邮箱:liuchunyang@ruc.edu.cn;马洪范,中国财政科学研究院研究员,经济学博士。
