摘要
特朗普政府退出《巴黎协定》的国际行为阻碍了全球气候治理进程。从动因来看,退约行为是一系列要素共同作用的结果。本文从实证角度,通过问卷调查,探讨了以政治、经济与社会为基本维度的具体因素对退约行为的影响力与认知差异。从影响力整体来看,以总统的性格特征、政党政治等为代表的政治要素是退约行为的首要动因,化石燃料产业发展仅为其次。其二,美国"发达"的市民社会力量却对气候政策影响相对较弱。具体的因素与退约动因的关联度也存在认知差异,典型表现为:特朗普性格特征影响力与不确定性并重;政党政治在气候政策上的共识呈现内外分化的发展趋势;退出《巴黎协定》与能源复兴、就业率提升的关系受到质疑;保守智库与公共意见在气候政策中的作用被忽视,特别是分化的社会阶层对气候政策的支持度各异。动因的多元性体现了气候政策制定的复杂性。面对美国国际气候政策的不稳定性,全球气候治理体系应该平衡好领导力结构以增强治理弹性。
The Trump administration's plan on withdrawal from the Paris Agreement has hampered the global climate governance process.For the motivation,the withdrawal behavior is the result of a series of factors.This paper,from an empirical point of view,through questionnaire surveys,discusses the influence and cognitive differences of specific factors of politics,economy and society as the basic dimensions on the withdrawal behavior.On the whole,the president's character characteristics,party politics and other political factors are the main motivation of the withdrawal behavior.The second is the fossil fuel industry development.However,the developed civil society forces in the United States is relatively weak on climate policy.There are cognitive differences in the correlation between specific factors and the motivations for withdrawal,which typically include:the influence and uncertainty of Trump's personality traits are equal,the consensus of party politics on climate policy shows a trend of internal and external differentiation,the relationship between withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and energy recovery and rising employment rates is questioned,and the role of conservative think tanks and public opinion in climate policy is neglected,especially the different levels of support for climate policy among divided social strata.The diversity of motivations reflects the complexity of climate policy making.In the face of the instability of U.S.international climate policy,the global climate governance system should balance the leadership structure to enhance governance flexibility.
基金
国家重点研发计划项目“气候变化风险的全球治理与国内应对关键问题研究”(项目编号:2018YFC1509001)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
《巴黎协定》
退约
动因
气候治理
“Paris Agreement”
Withdrawal
Motivation
Climate Governance
作者简介
于宏源,上海国际问题研究院比较政治和公共政策研究所所长、研究员;李坤海,上海财经大学法学院博士研究生。
