摘要
在房地产调控因城施策的背景下,研究房价波动规律具有现实意义。本文建立VAR模型研究深圳市新房和二手房价格增速的动态变化,加入虚拟变量和平均首付比作为外生变量。结论表明:即使在外部政策调控下,深圳市新房和二手房的价格波动也都保持一定的惯性,两个市场的惯性形成机制比较一致。新房市场和二手房市场之间没有严格的界限,两个市场的房价变动相互传导。平均首付比对于新房和二手房价格增速都是显著的负向影响,且对二手房市场的作用更强。本文研究表明在因城施策的基本原则上进行房地产调控具有重要意义。
In the Context of"Applying Different Real Estate Regulation and Contorl Policies to Different Cities",studying the law of housing price fluctuations has practical significance.This paper employs the VAR model,which involves the dummy variables and the average ratio of down payment as the exogenous variables,to study the price fluctuations of Shenzhen’s New and second-hand houses from January 2007 to May 2019.The results show that:even under the regulation policy of real estate,the housing price fluctuations of new and second-hand houses in shenzhen have certain inertia,and the inertia’s formation mechanism of the two markets is quite similar.The price fluctuations of the new and the second-hand houses in shenzhen transmit mutually.The average ratio of down payment has significantly negative impact on the housing price growth of both new and second-hand houses,and the impact on the second-hand houses’is more greater.
出处
《价格理论与实践》
北大核心
2019年第12期35-38,共4页
Price:Theory & Practice
基金
广东省特色重点学科“公共管理”建设项目(F2017STSZD01)资助.
关键词
二手房价格
平均首付比
房价增速
价格传导机制
Second-hand house price
Average down payment ratio
House price growth
Price transmission mechanism
作者简介
通讯作者:王伟华。
