构建与国民经济统计核算相一致的宏观经济学分析范式的思考

To Construct Macroeconomics Analytical Paradigm That is Consistent with National Economic Accounting

导出

摘要目前的宏观经济学理论与国民经济统计核算之间存在着某种脱节的现象,理论不能很好地应用于统计指标,统计指标不能很好地服务于理论。造成这种现象的主要原因是理论构建严重偏离了宏观经济实践与国民经济统计。为了寻找与揭示国民经济统计核算所反映出来的宏观经济运行的内在联系与逻辑,提高统计预测的理论与水平,必须从统计工作本身入手。着眼国民经济运行的实际情况和国民经济统计核算的需要以及重要的经济理论,重新构建一个与国民经济统计核算相一致的宏观经济学分析范式与学说。本文围绕这个主题由浅入深地提出了一个前后逻辑一贯的宏观经济学研究范式。 There is a certain disconnect between the current macroeconomic theory and national economic statistics.The theory cannot be very good at applying statistical indicators.Statistical indicators con not serve the theory well.The main reason is that the theoretical construction deviates seriously from the macroeconomic practice and national economic statistics.In order to find and reveal the internal relations and logic of macroeconomic operation reflected by national economic statistical accounting and improve the theory and level of statistical forecasting,we must start with the statistical work itself.Based on the actual situation of national economy operation,the need of national economic statistical accounting and the important economic theory,a new macroeconomics analysis model and theory which is consistent with the national economic statistical accounting is constructed.This paper proposes a logical and consistent macroeconomics research paradigm around this subject.

作者蔡国峰 Cai Guofeng(Institute of Economic Research,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics Lanzhou 730020)

机构地区兰州财经大学经济研究所

出处《经济统计学（季刊）》 2018年第1期66-79,共14页 China Economic Statistics Quarterly

关键词国民经济统计中国宏观经济学宏观经济分析范式 National Economic Statistics Chinese Macroeconomics Macroeconomic Analysis Paradigm

分类号 F222.33 [经济管理—国民经济]

作者简介蔡国峰,兰州财经大学经济研究所。