摘要
本文将特朗普当选视为意外的政治冲击,并利用其引起的资本市场反应,首次评估了2016年美国大选结果对中国出口贸易的潜在影响:在特朗普胜选后的事件窗口期,出口企业的累积超额收益率比非出口企业显著低0.4%至0.5%,而且以美国为主要市场的出口企业表现得更差。我们利用高频分钟数据和行业层面贸易风险指标,甄别了特朗普冲击的影响方式和途径;反事实分析确证了美国选举动态与中国贸易企业股价的联系。特朗普胜选不仅加剧了全球贸易体系的不确定性,更增加了中国企业在美国市场的出口风险。
Taking Donald Trump’s election as an unexpected political shock,we try to assess the potential impact of the 2016 U.S.election on China’s exporters through capital market reactions.Exporters’cumulative excess returns were significantly lower than non-exporters by 0.4 to 0.5 percent during the event window,and exporters with a major market in the United States performed even worse.We adopt minute-level data and introduce industry-level trade risk indicators to identify the impact channels of the shock.Counterfactual analysis further confirms the dynamics between U.S.election and the Chinese exporters’share price.Trump’s victory not only creates uncertainty in the global trading system,but also exacerbates the risk of Chinese companies exporting to the U.S.market.
作者
谢红军
蒋殿春
张禹
HONGJUN XIE;DIANCHUN JIANG;YU ZHANG(University of International Business and Economics;Nankai University;Civil Aviation University of China)
出处
《经济学（季刊）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2020年第1期233-260,共28页
China Economic Quarterly
基金
教育部人文社科重点基地重大项目“FDI、经济结构调整与增长转型”(19JJD79005)
中央高校基本科研业务费项目中国民航大学专项(3122019013)
对外经济贸易大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(19QD04)资助
作者简介
通信作者:张禹,天津市东丽区津北公路2898号,中国民航大学经济与管理学院,300300,电话:13502128420,E-mail:zhangyu881231@163.com。
