摘要
本文对增值税税率简并政策及其配套措施的行业税负效应进行了评估,并对其是否实现了主要行业税负明显降低和所有行业税负只减不增两大目标进行了回答。本文拓展了间接税税负转嫁模型,提出了新的行业税负效应评估方法,并利用投入产出表数据对三次税率简并政策及其配套措施的行业税负效应进行了全面评估。结果显示:(1)由于行业覆盖范围和法定税率下降程度存在差异,三次税率简并的税负效应相差较大,后两次简并的受益行业数量更广、整体减税幅度更大,但均无法使所有行业的税负只减不增或所有主要行业的税负明显降低;(2)增值税税率简并最终实现了较普遍的减税效果,不仅使大部分行业实现税负下降,也使大部分主要行业的税负明显降低,但仍有部分行业(尤其是服务业)的税负出现上升;(3)配套措施虽然成效显著,但仍无法确保所有行业税负只减不增,也无法使所有主要行业的税负都下降。本文还对2021年两会提案中两种进一步简并方案进行了评估,发现将13%税率调至9%,而9%和6%两档调至5%的三档并两档方案有着更好效果。
The heavy tax burden has been an important factor restricting the development of enterprises.Therefore,tax reduction has always been a topic of particular concern to the market.Since 2015,China has implemented structural tax cuts and general fee reductions to reduce enterprises’burdens,especially for small and micro enterprises.Subsequent annual government work reports have taken tax and fee reduction as one of the essential issues.From 2017 to 2019,China has continued to promote the simplification of value-added tax(VAT)rates,trying to reduce the tax burden of major industries and ensure tax burdens across all industries go down.This paper evaluates the industry tax burden effects of the VAT rate simplification policies along with the supporting measures and answers whether it achieves the above two goals.The traditional VAT theory implies that VAT is a consumption tax,which can be ultimately passed on to consumers.However,a growing number of literature shows that the VAT is not entirely borne by consumers but shared between both consumers and producers.This paper extends the indirect tax burden shifting model and proposes a new assessment method of the industry tax burden.We use the input-output table data to comprehensively evaluate the industry tax burden effects of the three VAT rate simplification policies and their supporting measures.The research results of this paper are as follows.(1)There are wide divergence among the tax burden effects of the three policies due to the differences in the scope of industry coverage and degree of VAT rate reduction.The latter two simplification policies benefit more industries with a more significant overall tax reduction.However,neither of the three simplification policies reduces the tax burden of all industries or significantly reduces the tax burden of all major industries.(2)The simplification policies finally achieved relatively general tax reduction effects,reducing the tax burden of most industries and significantly reducing the tax burden of most major industries.However,the tax burden of some industries,especially the service industry,is rather increasing.(3)Although the supporting measures have achieved remarkable effects,they cannot ensure two major goals,namely,the decrease of the VAT burden of all industries or all major industries.In addition,to comply with the 14 th Five-Year Plan proposal that further optimizes the VAT system,this paper also evaluates the two further simplification schemes in the proposals of members of the National People’s Congress(NPC)and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference(CPPCC)in 2021.From the perspective of industry tax burden effects,we find that the three-to-two scheme of adjusting the tax rate from 13%to 9%and from 9%and 6%to 5%has a better effect.This paper contributes to existing literature in several ways.Firstly,this paper improves the calculation method of industry VAT payable,extends the indirect tax burden shifting model of Su et al.(2020)to the measurement of industry tax burden effects,and proposes a new method to assess industry tax burden.The new method can more accurately assess the industry tax burden effects than the traditional one.It not only fully considers the impact of exports,inventories,and newly increased investment in fixed assets but also makes the tax shifting among industries endogenous.Secondly,based on the new assessment method,this paper comprehensively evaluates the industry tax burden effects of the three VAT rate simplification policies and their supporting measures from 2017 to 2019 using the input-output table data.Besides,we check whether the two major goals aforementioned have been achieved.However,extant literature only uses traditional methods to examine the tax burden effects of a single tax rate simplification policy,which neither consider the impacts of supporting measures nor answer the two major goals.Finally,this paper also simulates the industry tax burden effects of two schemes for further VAT rate simplification in the proposals of the NPC and the CPPCC members in 2021 to provide reference for China to promote the simplification of the VAT rates further.Based on the evaluated results,we put forward corresponding policy implications from industry and government perspectives.
作者
方红生
胡稳权
张旭飞
苏云晴
FANG Hongsheng;HU Wenquan;ZHANG Xufei;SU Yunqing(School of Economics,Zhejiang University;Institute for Fiscal Big⁃Data&Policy,Zhejiang University)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2022年第7期136-152,共17页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD080)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金的资助
关键词
增值税税率简并
配套措施
行业税负效应
两大目标
进一步简并
VAT Rate Simplification
Supporting Measures
Industry Tax Burden Effects
Two Major Goals
Further Simplification
作者简介
方红生,浙江大学经济学院、浙江大学财税大数据与政策研究中心,邮政编码:310058,电子信箱:fhs@zju.edu.cn;通讯作者:胡稳权,浙江大学经济学院,邮政编码:310058,电子信箱:wqhu@zju.edu.cn;张旭飞,浙江大学经济学院,邮政编码:310058,电子信箱:zhangxufei@zju.edu.cn;苏云晴,浙江大学经济学院,邮政编码:310058,电子信箱:syq0715@foxmail.com。
