摘要
该文基于生命周期假说构建研究模型,并利用2002-2018年中国31个省、市、区的面板数据,分别对全国、分区域层次的样本数据,采用广义矩估计GMM方法进行实证分析,其中对全国样本的实证分析结果表明:人口年龄结构对居民消费率具有显著影响,且少儿抚养比对居民消费率具有正向影响,而老年抚养比的上升则对居民消费率有抑制作用。另外在单独对东、中、西、东北四大区域的研究发现,各个区域的老少抚养比与居民消费率的关系并不与全国数据样本分析结果保持一致,具体来说,四大区域的少儿抚养比对居民消费率都存在比较显著的影响,其影响大小从大到小排序为东北、东部、中部、西部,呈梯状排列;而老年抚养比在四大区域中表现出来的对居民消费率的影响分别为:除了中部地区外,其他三个地区老年抚养比对居民消费率都存在显著影响,且东部地区和东北地区的估计系数为正,其中东北地区系数大于东部地区系数,而另外两个地区的估计系数则为负,其中东部地区的发展结果最接近全国样本估计结果。且研究结果表明在中国,居民消费行为会明显受到过去消费的影响,表现出比较明显的消费行为惯性。
Based on the Life Cycle Hypothesis,this paper constructs a research model,and uses the data of 31 provinces,cities and districts in China from 2002 to 2018 to analyze the sample data at the national and regional levels respectively by generalized method of moments.The empirical analysis of the national sample shows that:the age structure of the population has a significant impact on the consumption rate of residents,and the child dependency ratio has a positive impact on the consumption rate of residents,while the increase of the elderly dependency ratio has a inhibitory effect on the consumption rate of residents.In addition,it is found that the relationship between dependency ratio and consumption rate of residents in each region is not consistent with the national data sample analysis results.Specifically,the dependency ratio of the young and the old in the four regions has a significant impact on the consumption rate of the residents,ranking Northeast,East,Middle and West from large to small.In addition to the central region,the elderly dependency ratio has a significant impact on the consumption rate of residents in the other three regions,and the estimation coefficients of the eastern region and the northeast region are positive,in which the northeast region coefficient is greater than the eastern region coefficient,while the other two regions’estimation coefficients are positive.The number is negative,and the development results of the eastern region are closest to the national sample estimates.And the research results show that in China,the consumption behavior of residents will be obviously affected by the past consumption,showing a relatively obvious inertia of consumption behavior.
作者
姚羽希
YAO Yuxi(Business School of Ningbo University,Ningbo Zhejiang Province 315211,China)
出处
《中国发展》
2021年第4期28-35,共8页
China Development
关键词
人口年龄结构
居民消费率
生命周期假说
Age Structure of Population
Consumption Rate of Residents
Life Cycle Hypothesis
作者简介
姚羽希,硕士研究生,主要从事区域经济理论与政策等方面的研究。E-mail:yyy072520@163.com
