摘要
旅游业作为我国经济新常态的亮点和发展方向,对促进经济社会全面、协调、可持续发展具有重要战略意义。目前研究多关注于全国层面旅游业发展与经济增长之间线性研究,少有研究关注省市一级两者之间非线性关系。本文利用2001-2017年新疆15个地州(市)面板数据,构建门槛回归模型探究新疆旅游业发展对区域经济的影响。结果发现:(1)旅游业发展对新疆经济增长具有促进作用;(2)旅游业的经济促进作用基于旅游业物质资本投资呈显著非单调递减双重门槛特征;(3)旅游业的经济促进作用基于经济发展水平、对外开放、教育水平呈显著非单调递增的单一门槛特征。
As the highlight point and development direction of China’s economic new normal,tourism is of strategic significance to promote economy and society overall,coordinated and sustainable development.At present,most studies focus on the linear relationship between tourism and economic growth at the national level,while few studies focus on the non-linear relationship between tourism development and economic growth at the provincial and municipal levels.Based on the panel data of 15 prefectures(cities)in XinJiang from 2001 to 2017,this paper constructs a non-linear panel model to explore the influence of XinJiang’s tourism development on regional economy.The results show that:(1)the development of tourism promotes the economic growth of xinjiang;(2)based on the investment of tourism material capital,the economic promotion of tourism development is characterized by a significant non-monotonic decreasing double threshold(3)based on the level of economic development,opening to the outside world and the level of education,the economic promotion effect of tourism development is characterized by a significant non-monotonic single threshold.
出处
《金融发展评论》
2020年第8期41-55,共15页
Financial Development Review
关键词
旅游业
经济增长
门槛回归模型
Tourism
Economic growth
Panel threshold model
作者简介
中国人民银行乌鲁木齐中心支行金融研究处课题组组长:郇志坚;课题组成员:庞秀萍、麦尔哈巴、郭庆祥(伊犁中支)、刘瑞(伊犁中支)、孙海珍(执笔,伊犁中支)刘帅(执笔,伊犁中支)、彭新楚、刘洁、曹爽爽(吐鲁番中支)。
