摘要
PPP铁路项目投入大,特许经营期长,运营风险需关注。根据PPP铁路项目可行性缺口补助运营模型,利用敏感性分析法,对不确定因素进行风险定量识别。以安徽省郑蒲港铁路项目为例,计算敏感度系数和临界点,找出该项目运营风险因素并估计其影响程度,验证该方法的可行性和科学性。
The PPP railway project has a large investment and a long franchise period,and its operational risk needs special attention.According to the feasibility gap subsidy operation model of the PPP railway project,this paper uses the sensitivity analysis method to quantitatively identify the uncertain factors.Taking Zhengpu port railway project in Anhui as an example,calculates the sensitivity coefficient and critical point,then finds the operational risk factors of this project and estimates the degree of influence,so as to verify the feasibility and scientificalness of the method.
作者
舒健
SHU Jian(Maanshan Government Investment Project Evaluation Center,Maanshan 243000,China;Maanshan Engineering Consulting Institute,Maanshan 243000,China)
出处
《建筑经济》
北大核心
2020年第S01期207-210,共4页
Construction Economy
关键词
PPP铁路项目
运营风险
敏感性分析
风险识别
PPP railway project
operational risk
sensitivity analysis method
risk identification
作者简介
舒健,男,生于1975年,安徽青阳人,经济师,研究方向:工程造价、工程咨询、产业经济。
