摘要
开展碳排放内在规律与趋势照常研究是制定碳减排政策、实现高质量发展的基础性工作。针对目前的研究主要采用预先设定的二次、三次等函数形式进行实证回归研究,通过建立自适应线性模型,采用全球86个经济体1960—2019年的面板数据来探究人均二氧化碳排放与经济增长之间的关系。并针对分段方法、数据来源等问题进行稳健性检验。此外,使用相同的数据,将常见的几种不同函数形式进行对比分析来验证本研究实证模型的优越性。研究结论如下:基准回归结果表明人均碳排放与人均GDP呈“倒U型”关系,拐点出现在人均GDP为19590美元(PPP,2017)时;稳健性检验结果表明分段方法、数据来源的不同并不影响基本研究结论;不同的函数形式的回归结果的比较综合表明了自适应线性模型在探究人均碳排放与经济发展关系中具有更佳的模型优势,且二次函数与三次函数的实证结果可从侧面验证有关碳排放与经济增长关系的基本研究结论。
Conducting research on the internal laws and trends of carbon emissions is a basic work for formulating carbon emission reduction policies and achieving high-quality development.In view of the problem that current research mainly uses pre-set quadratic,cubic and other functional forms for empirical regression research,this paper establishes an adaptive linear model and uses panel data from 86 economies in the world from 1960 to 2019 to explore the relationship between per capita carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth.And robustness tests are conducted on issues such as segmentation methods and data sources.In addition,this paper uses the same data to compare and analyze several common different functional forms to verify the superiority of this empirical model.The research conclusions are as follows:First,the baseline regression results show that per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP are in an inverted U-shaped relationship,and the turning point occurs when per capita GDP is US$19,590(PPP,2017).Second,the robustness test results of this paper show that the differences in segmentation methods and data sources do not affect the basic research conclusions of this paper.Third,the comparison of regression results of different functional forms shows that the adaptive linear model of this paper has better model advantages in exploring the relationship between per capita carbon emissions and economic development,and the empirical results of quadratic and cubic functions can verify the basic research conclusions of this paper from the side.
作者
王策
徐佳敏
WANG Ce;XU Jiamin(School of Economics,Nanjing Audit University,Nanjing 211815,China)
出处
《煤炭经济研究》
2024年第6期6-15,共10页
Coal Economic Research
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(72103100)
关键词
碳排放
经济增长
非线性关系
自适应线性模型
稳健性检验
模型比较
carbon emissions
economic growth
nonlinear relationships
adaptive linear models
robustness tests
model comparison
作者简介
通讯作者:徐佳敏(2000—),女,江苏盐城人,硕士研究生,主要研究方向为能源经济与气候政策。E-mail:ma2206129@stu.nau.edu.cn;王策(1990—),男,浙江丽水人,校聘副教授,博士,主要研究方向为能源经济与气候政策。E-mail:wangce@nau.edu.cn
