摘要
本文建立一个考虑投入产出关联的行业层面汇率测算框架,区分静态和动态机制、价格和权重渠道、全球价值链和国内价值链,研究了行业关联对实际有效汇率的影响。我们基于该框架使用世界投入产出数据库数据,对人民币实际有效汇率进行了经验分析。结果表明,行业关联的变动是人民币实际有效汇率变动的重要原因,静态和动态机制、价格和权重渠道、全球价值链和国内价值链均非常重要。2005-2011年,人民币加总的行业关联实际有效汇率升值8.36%,但在其他条件不变的假设下,行业关联的变动使人民币贬值28.73%。这表明,行业关联的变动减缓了人民币升值的步伐。此外,本文还讨论了价格渠道的缓冲和放大效应,量化分析了国内价值链变动对实际有效汇率的影响。
This paper builds sectoral linkages within the Bayoumi et al.(2013)model to measure the real effective exchange rate(REER)at the sectoral level.It then divides the impact of sectoral linkages on REER into static and dynamic mechanisms,price and weighting channels,and global and domestic value chains.Based on this framework,the paper applies the model to measure the RMB REER using data from the World Input-Output Database(WIOD).The results of the study show that static and dynamic mechanisms,price and weighting channels,and global and domestic value chains are of extreme importance,and that changes in sectoral linkages are a clearly significant source for a change of RMB REER.Between 2005 and 2011,the RMB REER appreciated by 8.36%,but if other conditions are considered unchanged,changes in sectoral linkages depreciated the renminbi by 28.73%.This suggests that changes in sectoral linkages slowed the pace of RMB appreciation.This paper also examines the two effects of the price channel,and quantitatively analyses the impact of changes in the domestic value chain on RMB REER.
作者
苏庆义
马盈盈
Su Qingyi;Ma Yingying
出处
《世界经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第4期128-150,共23页
The Journal of World Economy
基金
国家社科基金青年项目(16CGJ001)的阶段性研究成果
关键词
实际有效汇率
全球价值链
行业层面
投入产出表
增加值出口
real effective exchange rate(REER)
global value chains
sectoral level
input-output table
value-added exports
作者简介
苏庆义,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京市东城区建国门内大街5号100732。电子信箱:mathe_sqy@163.com;通讯作者:马盈盈,中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所,北京市东城区建国门内大街5号100732。电子信箱:alice_myy@163.com(马盈盈)。
