摘要
研究目标:有效预警中国工业企业碳减排信用风险。研究方法:基于耦合协调度模型验证防控工业企业碳减排信用风险的必要性;基于多模型对比思路,验证FM模型对碳减排信用风险预警的有效性;基于压力测试方法确定碳减排信用风险的重点防控企业和政策敏感点。研究发现:"企业碳减排潜力"通过"预期政府环境规制力度"这一中间媒介,对工业企业还款能力产生显著影响。研究创新:基于普惠金融理念提出"工业企业碳减排信用风险预警体系",避免商业银行因"一刀切"式的碳减排信用风险防控要求而流失客户。研究价值:在中国"实行最严格的生态环境保护制度"政策背景下,将低碳要素有效融入工业企业信用评价过程,从实证角度实现了企业生态效益与商业银行经济效益的平衡,为商业银行发展绿色信贷提供技术和策略支持。
Research Objectives:Alerting carbon emission reduction credit risk of Chinese industrial enterprises effectively.Research Methods:First,based on Coupling Coordination Degree Model,verifying the necessity of preventing and controlling carbon emission reduction credit risk of Chinese industrial enterprises.Second,based on the idea of multi-model comparison,verifying the effectiveness of Factorization Machine(FM)for early warning on carbon emission reduction credit risk of Chinese industrial enterprises.Third,based on Stress Test,identifying the key industrial enterprise and policy sensitive points for preventing and controlling carbon emission reduction credit risk.Research Findings:Corporate carbon emission reduction potential has a significant impact on the repayment ability of Chinese industrial enterprises,through the intermediary medium of expected government environmental regulation.Research Innovations:Based on inclusive financial concept,Early Warning System of Chinese industrial enterprises on carbon emission reduction credit risk was proposed,which preventing commercial banks from losing customers due to requirements for all companies on carbon emission reduction credit risk.Research Value:Under the policy background of implementing the most stringent ecological environmental protection system,low-carbon elements was effectively integrated into the credit evaluation process of industrial enterprises.It realizes the balance between the ecological benefits of enterprises and the economic benefits of commercial banks,and provides technical and strategic support for the development of green credit.
作者
佟孟华
邢秉昆
赵作伦
杨思涵
Tong Menghua;Xing Bingkun;Zhao Zuolun;Yang Sihan(School of Economics,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics;Center for Econometric Analysis and Forecasting,Dongbei University of Finance and Economics)
出处
《数量经济技术经济研究》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2021年第2期147-165,共19页
Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics
基金
Energy Foundation’s China Low-Carbon Economic Growth Program(G-1806-27989)
2020年度中国博士后科学基金面上项目“基于政府、银行和企业的低碳协同发展机制和政策研究”(2020M680803)
国家自然科学基金重点项目“大数据环境下的微观信用评价理论与方法研究”(71731003)的资助
关键词
碳减排信用
工业企业
FM模型
压力测试
Carbon Emission Reduction Credit
Industrial Enterprises
Factorization Machine
Stress Test
