摘要
中国持续上升的杠杆率水平一直是投资者和政策制定者关注的焦点。以非金融部门债务占GDP的比例衡量,2018年中国的宏观杠杆率水平与前一年持平,但是对表外和地方融资的大幅收紧引发了金融条件的过度收缩,企业(尤其是民企)经营情况恶化,国内投资和消费数据明显下滑,宏观经济再次滑向通缩的边缘。2019年以来,中国政府作出了明显调整,债务(尤其是地方政府)融资增速回升,经济活动指标和工业品价格也随之出现企稳的迹象。然而,投资者对于经济是否可以持久企稳依然缺乏信心。本文聚焦地方融资平台,通过对平台发债时公布的资产负债表的分析,对其经营情况、偿债能力进行评估,并与其他非金融企业,包括民企和非城投的国企进行对比,以便更深入地理解中国的债务风险和精准去杠杆的政策选项。
China’s rising leverage level has always been the focus of investors and policymakers.Measured by the ratio of non-financial sector debt to GDP,China’s macro-leverage level in 2018 was the same as the previous year.However,the sharp tightening of off-balance-sheet and local financing has led to excessive contraction of financial conditions,deterioration of business conditions of enterprises(especially private enterprises),a significant decline in domestic investment and consumption data,and a further slide of macro-economy to the edge of deflation.Since this year,the Chinese government has made significant adjustments,debt(especially local government)financing growth has rebounded,and indicators of economic activity and prices of industrial products have also shown signs of stabilization.However,investors still lack confidence in the sustainability of the economy.This paper focuses on the local financing platform,through the analysis of the balance sheet published when the platform issues debt,evaluates its operation and solvency,and compares it with other non-financial enterprises,including private enterprises and non-city-invested state-owned enterprises,in order to better understand China’s debt risk and precise de-leverage policy options.
作者
梁红
刘鎏
LIANG Hong;LIU Liu(China International Capital Corporation Limited)
出处
《新金融评论》
2019年第3期75-90,共16页
New Finance Review
关键词
地方融资平台
债务风险
偿债能力
Local Financing Platform
Debt Risk
Debt Paying Ability
作者简介
梁红,中金公司首席经济学家;刘鎏,中金公司分析师。
