摘要
我们正处在世界百年未有之大变局和中华民族伟大复兴全局的历史交汇期。习近平总书记对中国与世界格局的重要判断,是认识中国国情与世界世情的基本依据,也是提出世界百年未有之大变局下中国大战略的基本依据。百年未有之大变局的核心是世界经济格局的重大改变。文本实证分析和预测2000-2050年世界经济格局、工业化格局、科学技术格局、贸易格局、城市格局、现代化格局的重大变化,从量变到质变,出现前所未有的南北国家大趋同,疫情时代无疑加快了世界政治格局、全球治理格局大变迁。中国本身就是世界百年未有之大变局的最大变量,既是自变量,又是因变量,两者之间的互动形成中国与世界百年未有之大变局,成为中国实现第二个百年奋斗目标的最大天时地利。
We are in the historical period that is witnessing the world’s complex and profound changes unseen in a century and the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.Xi Jinping’s judgment on the global pattern and China’s position within it is both the basis for us to understand China’s national conditions and the world’s situation and the underlying ground on which to design China’s national strategy in the context of the undergoing complicated changes.At the heart of the major changes is the far-reaching transformations of the world economic pattern.This paper makes an empirical analysis and offers predictions about these changes from the perspectives of global economy,industrialization,science and technology,trade,urbanization and modernization from 2000-2050.Evolving from small adjustments to fundamental remolding,there has been an unprecedented great convergence between north and south counties,which will have remarkable implications for the international politics and global governance pattern.This situation is further reinforced by the COVID-19 pandemic.China itself is the biggest variable in these changes,both an independent and dependent variable.The interactions between China and the world will provides with favorable conditions for China to achieve its second-centenary-goal,that is,to build itself into a modern socialist country that is prosperous,strong,democratic,culturally advanced and harmonious.
作者
胡鞍钢
HU An-gang(Institute for Contemporary China Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084;National and Global Governance Institute,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084;School of Public Policy and Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084)
出处
《新疆师范大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》
CSSCI
北大核心
2021年第5期38-53,2,共17页
Journal of Xinjiang Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
基金
中宣部全国哲学社会科学工作办公室国家高端智库专项(20155010298)
清华大学“文科”双高专项(53120600119)的阶段性成果
关键词
百年未有之大变局
世界经济格局
世界工业化格局
世界科学技术格局
疫情时代
Profound Changes Unseen in a Century
the World Economic Pattern
the World Industrialization Pattern
the World Science and Technology Pattern
the COVID-19 Pandemic Era
作者简介
胡鞍钢,清华大学国情研究院院长,国家治理与全球治理研究院、清华大学公共管理学院教授、博士生导师。任国家“十三五”发展规划专家委员会委员等职,是国内外享有盛誉的中国国情研究专家和学术带头人。出版《中国道路与中国梦想》、《2020中国:全面建成小康社会》等各类中英文专著、编著60余部,发表学术论文近500篇。
