摘要
基于云水资源积分推导公式,选取50年的气象站资料研究三江源地区(the Three River Headwaters Region,TRHR)云量与降水时空演变规律及其统计关系,并对降水效率(Precipitation Efficiency,PE)时空特征深入分析,挖掘人工增雨试验潜力.结果表明:①总、低云量分别以长江源区的治多、清水河为高值中心向西呈"经向型"分布,向东呈"纬向型"分布.低云量与降水量呈增加趋势且通过了α=0.005显著性检验,总云量呈减少趋势并通过了α=0.01显著性检验;②各源区总、低云量与降水的突变年份不同步.降水年际波动较云量变化大且低云与降水相关性较好.低云量随总云量增加而增加,当总云量增加1.7%时,低云量将增加1%,同期降水增加10mm,年降雨频率最高出现在400mm;③TRHR多年PE空间分布与降水、云量一致,整体表现出自东南向西北方向递减空间分布,PE高、低值区分布在34°N以南和34°N以北.④TRHR多年平均PE为40.3%且增幅变化不大,长江源区西部和黄河源区东北部增雨潜力(Precipitation Enhancement Potential,PEP)最大,最佳开发时间在3~4月和10~11月.
Spatial-temporal variation and statistical relationship was studied on cloud cover and precipitation based on integral derivation formula by using meteorological data of 50 years in in the Three River Headwaters Region(TRHR),the characteristics Precipitation Efficiency(PE)was deeply analyzed to excavate the artificial precipitation enhancement potential.Some conclusion could be drawn.①The distribution of total cloud cover and low cloud cover were"meridional"to the west and"zonal"to the east of the high-value center of Yangtze River(Zhiduo,Qingshui).The low cloud cover and precipitation increased and passed the significance testα=0.005.However,the total cloud cover decreased and passed the significance testα=0.01.②the mutational time weren’t synchronized of total,low cloud cover and precipitation in TRHR,the annual fluctuation of precipitation was larger than cloud cover and precipitation was closely related to the low cloud cover.The low cloud cover(precipitation)increased 1%(10 mm)with the total cloud cover increases by 1.7%and the highest annual precipitation frequency occurred at 400 mm.③The spatial distribution of PE was decreasing from southeast to northwest consistent with precipitation and cloud cover in TRHR,the highvalue and low-value of PE were distributed in the South and North of 34°N,respectively.④The annual average PE was 40.3%with little amplification in TRHR,the largest Precipitation Enhancement Potential(PEP)happened in west of Yangtze river and northeast of Yellow River and the best development times were chosen March-April and October-November.
作者
强安丰
汪妮
魏加华
魏霞
牛升达
QIANG Anfeng;WANG Ni;WEI Jiahua;WEI Xia;NIU Shengda(State Key Laboratory of Eco-Hydrologic Engineering in Northwest Arid Region of China,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;State Key Laboratory of Plateau Ecology and Agriculture,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydro science and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Shanghai Academy of Spaceflight Technology,Shanghai 201109,China)
出处
《应用基础与工程科学学报》
EI
CSCD
北大核心
2020年第3期574-593,共20页
Journal of Basic Science and Engineering
基金
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFC0401408,2017YFC0403600)
国家自然科学基金项目(51679188,51979221)
上海航天科技创新基金(SAST2017-054)
作者简介
强安丰(1991—),男,博士研究生,E-mail:1446942310@qq.com;通信作者:汪妮(1974—),女,博士,教授,E-mail:wangni@xaut.edu.cn
