摘要
现代社会中预警成为应对各类灾害的"消息树"、"发令枪"与"缓冲器",可以"防患于未然",有效应对恐怖袭击事件等各类突发事件。但是反恐预警难以兼顾适应性和准确性要求,自身存在"两难困境",需要妥善处理好恐怖主义的隐蔽性与情报监控的局限性,情报信息的弱关联性与部门利益的割裂性,以及预警信息的准确性与恐怖行动的逆向选择性等三对矛盾关系。
In modern society,early warning becomes a kind of"information tree","starting gun"or"buffer"to deal with all kinds of disasters,which could take precautions and handle emergencies effectively including terrorist attack.after september 11 attacks,U.S.government set up counter-terrorism early warning system,and upgraded it into national terrorism Advisory System(NTAS)in a few of years later,which played a positive role in counter-terrorism war.however,counter-terrorism early warning system is facing the dilemma that it’s difficult to balance adaptability and accuracy.It is necessary to properly deal with three pairs of contradictory relationships:the concealment of terrorism and the limitation of intelligence monitoring,the weak relevance of intelligence information and the separation of departmental interests,and the accuracy of early warning information and the reverse selectivity of terrorist actions.
出处
《中国应急管理科学》
2021年第9期51-59,共9页
Journal of China Emergency Management Science
基金
国家社科基金一般项目“基于抗逆力视角的特大和超大城市公共安全治理研究”(18BGL230)的研究成果
作者简介
董泽宇,中共中央党校(国家行政学院)应急管理教研部副教授,研究方向为突发事件应急管理、预警防控、卫生应急、舆情回应、模拟演练、风险评估、科普宣教等。
