摘要
设定具有代表性的核电案例项目进行经济评价,计算发电成本和满足收益率要求的上网电价,是用于衡量经济性的通常做法。通过与燃煤发电项目的对比,发现发电成本不是影响上网电价的主要因素;分解上网电价并开展不同方案的试算,发现上网电价较高的主要原因是建设期长、还款期短、前期还款压力大等,这些不利因素导致了核电对项目总体利润的诉求较高,且利润前低后高的特性也导致核电表面利润水平被严重高估。对发电成本进行拆分,发现核电投资成本的绝对值和占比明显高于燃煤发电,而投资成本是导致利润诉求的主要原因,核电项目利润水平偏高是符合项目投资和运行特点的。这些研究成果揭示了核电经济性的本质特点,对于全面、准确认知核电经济性并提出优化方法有深刻的意义,可以作为核电研发、设计、建造等各环节开展经济性提升的参考依据,有利于指导项目决策和行业发展。
Representative nuclear power cases are set to conduct the economic evaluation,and calculate the electricity generation cost and the feed-in electricity price to meet the FIRR,which are used as main indicators to measure the economy.By comparison with cases of coal-fired power generation,it is found that the electricity generation cost is not the main factor affecting the feed-in price.Through the decomposition of the feed-in price and forecast of different cases,it is discovered that the long construction period,short repayment period,and high repayment pressure,lead to high profit requirement together,and the character of low profit in the early stage and high profit in the late stage causes overestimate of profit.Split the electricity generation cost,it is clear that the value and proportion of investment cost of NPP are significantly higher than that of coal-fired power,as the investment cost is the main reason for profit demand,the high profit level of NPP is in line with the characteristics of their own investment and operation.The draw of these factors is of great significance for discovering the economic essence of nuclear power,summarizing its characteristics and improving its economic indicators in the future.The conclusions provide reference basis for decision makers and investors,which is helpful to guide business decisions and industry development.
作者
郑保军
李石然
ZHENG Bao-jun;LI Shi-ran(China Nuclear Energy Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100193,China)
出处
《中国核电》
2023年第3期327-332,共6页
China Nuclear Power
关键词
核电
燃煤发电
发电成本
上网电价
利润
nuclear power
coal-fired power
electricity generation cost
feed-in electricity price
profit
作者简介
郑保军(1985—),男,河北保定人,高级工程师,硕士研究生,从事核能技术经济研究工作(E-mail:zbj85@sina.com)。
