安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with ...The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.展开更多
To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA...To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.展开更多
近年来大型体育场馆的数量快速增加,随之而来的突发事件也不断增多。人群拥挤踩踏事故是大型体育场馆较为常见的安全事故,严重威胁到人民的生命安全。为了梳理总结大型体育场馆内人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的致因因素,构建了大型体育场馆人...近年来大型体育场馆的数量快速增加,随之而来的突发事件也不断增多。人群拥挤踩踏事故是大型体育场馆较为常见的安全事故,严重威胁到人民的生命安全。为了梳理总结大型体育场馆内人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的致因因素,构建了大型体育场馆人群拥挤踩踏事故的过程模型。首先,基于系统理论事故模型与过程(systemstheoretic accident model and processes,STAMP)模型分析并构建大型体育场馆人群拥挤踩踏事故的安全控制结构,并依据该模型来识别和确定事故致因因素;其次,利用决策试验与评价实验室法(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)分析踩踏事故各个致因因素之间的相互作用关系,并计算出各个致因因素的中心度、原因度以及权重;最后,辨识出大型体育场馆发生踩踏事故的原因因素、结果因素以及关键致因因素。结果表明,管理队伍未对人群进行正确的引导和疏散通道处发生人群拥堵等为关键致因素。该模型对大型体育场馆的人流管控和安全管理具有一定的参考和支撑作用。展开更多
为分析化学品船智能液货系统的安全性,采用系统理论事故模型与过程(System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes, STAMP)方法,构建了化学品船智能液货系统控制反馈模型;基于系统理论过程分析(System-Theoretic Process Analysis, ST...为分析化学品船智能液货系统的安全性,采用系统理论事故模型与过程(System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes, STAMP)方法,构建了化学品船智能液货系统控制反馈模型;基于系统理论过程分析(System-Theoretic Process Analysis, STPA),确定系统级事故,识别不安全控制行为并分析不安全控制行为关键致因;将不安全控制行为作为风险因素,利用三角模糊数对不安全控制行为风险进行量化。结果表明,26种不安全控制行为中,泵管阀动态调节、人员监测、数据采集、货品相容性判定等因素对风险影响程度较高。该分析结果可为化学品船智能液货系统的应用和安全管理提供参考。展开更多
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
文摘The wheel brake system safety is a complex problem which refers to its technical state, operating environment, human factors, etc., in aircraft landing taxiing process. Usually, professors consider system safety with traditional probability techniques based on the linear chain of events. However, it could not comprehensively analyze system safety problems, especially in operating environment, interaction of subsystems, and human factors. Thus,we consider system safety as a control problem based on the system-theoretic accident model, the processes(STAMP) model and the system theoretic process analysis(STPA) technique to compensate the deficiency of traditional techniques. Meanwhile,system safety simulation is considered as system control simulation, and Monte Carlo methods are used which consider the range of uncertain parameters and operation deviation to quantitatively study system safety influence factors in control simulation. Firstly,we construct the STAMP model and STPA feedback control loop of the wheel brake system based on the system functional requirement. Then four unsafe control actions are identified, and causes of them are analyzed. Finally, we construct the Monte Carlo simulation model to analyze different scenarios under disturbance. The results provide a basis for choosing corresponding process model variables in constructing the context table and show that appropriate brake strategies could prevent hazards in aircraft landing taxiing.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2021YFB1600601)the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Civil Aviation Administration of China(U1933106)+2 种基金the Scientific Research Project of Tianjin Educational Committee(2019KJ134)the Natural Science Foundation of TianjinIntelligent Civil Aviation Program(21JCQNJ C00900)。
文摘To solve the problem of risk identification and quantitative assessment for human-computer interaction(HCI)in complex avionics systems,an HCI safety analysis framework based on system-theoretical process analysis(STPA)and cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM)is proposed.STPACREAM can identify unsafe control actions and find the causal path during the interaction of avionics systems and pilot with the help of formal verification tools automatically.The common performance conditions(CPC)of avionics systems in the aviation environment is established and a quantitative analysis of human failure is carried out.Taking the head-up display(HUD)system interaction process as an example,a case analysis is carried out,the layered safety control structure and formal model of the HUD interaction process are established.For the interactive behavior“Pilots approaching with HUD”,four unsafe control actions and35 causal scenarios are identified and the impact of common performance conditions at different levels on the pilot decision model are analyzed.The results show that HUD's HCI level gradually improves as the scores of CPC increase,and the quality of crew member cooperation and time sufficiency of the task is the key to its HCI.Through case analysis,it is shown that STPACREAM can quantitatively assess the hazards in HCI and identify the key factors that impact safety.
文摘近年来大型体育场馆的数量快速增加,随之而来的突发事件也不断增多。人群拥挤踩踏事故是大型体育场馆较为常见的安全事故,严重威胁到人民的生命安全。为了梳理总结大型体育场馆内人群拥挤踩踏事故发生的致因因素,构建了大型体育场馆人群拥挤踩踏事故的过程模型。首先,基于系统理论事故模型与过程(systemstheoretic accident model and processes,STAMP)模型分析并构建大型体育场馆人群拥挤踩踏事故的安全控制结构,并依据该模型来识别和确定事故致因因素;其次,利用决策试验与评价实验室法(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)分析踩踏事故各个致因因素之间的相互作用关系,并计算出各个致因因素的中心度、原因度以及权重;最后,辨识出大型体育场馆发生踩踏事故的原因因素、结果因素以及关键致因因素。结果表明,管理队伍未对人群进行正确的引导和疏散通道处发生人群拥堵等为关键致因素。该模型对大型体育场馆的人流管控和安全管理具有一定的参考和支撑作用。
文摘为分析化学品船智能液货系统的安全性,采用系统理论事故模型与过程(System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes, STAMP)方法,构建了化学品船智能液货系统控制反馈模型;基于系统理论过程分析(System-Theoretic Process Analysis, STPA),确定系统级事故,识别不安全控制行为并分析不安全控制行为关键致因;将不安全控制行为作为风险因素,利用三角模糊数对不安全控制行为风险进行量化。结果表明,26种不安全控制行为中,泵管阀动态调节、人员监测、数据采集、货品相容性判定等因素对风险影响程度较高。该分析结果可为化学品船智能液货系统的应用和安全管理提供参考。
