Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of severa...Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.展开更多
A new horn failure mechanism was constructed for tunnel faces in the soft rock mass by means of the logarithmic spiral curve. The seismic action was incorporated into the horn failure mechanism using the pseudo-static...A new horn failure mechanism was constructed for tunnel faces in the soft rock mass by means of the logarithmic spiral curve. The seismic action was incorporated into the horn failure mechanism using the pseudo-static method. Considering the randomness of rock mass parameters and loads, a three-dimensional (3D) stochastic collapse model was established. Reliability analysis of seismic stability of tunnel faces was presented via the kinematical approach and the response surface method. The results show that, the reliability of tunnel faces is significantly affected by the supporting pressure, geological strength index, uniaxial compressive strength, rock bulk density and seismic forces. It is worth noting that, if the effect of seismic force was not considered, the stability of tunnel faces would be obviously overestimated. However, the correlation between horizontal and vertical seismic forces can be ignored under the condition of low calculation accuracy.展开更多
Advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） can not only improve drivers＇ accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers＇ adaptability to the stochastic network cap...Advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） can not only improve drivers＇ accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers＇ adaptability to the stochastic network capacity degradations. In this paper, a mixed stochastic user equilibrium model was proposed to describe the interactive route choice behaviors between ATIS equipped and unequipped drivers on a degradable transport network. In the proposed model the information accessibility of equipped drivers was reflected by lower degree of uncertainty in their stochastic equilibrium flow distributions, and their behavioral adaptability was captured by multiple equilibrium behaviors over the stochastic network state set. The mixed equilibrium model was formulated as a fixed point problem defined in the mixed route flows, and its solution was achieved by executing an iterative algorithm. Numerical experiments were provided to verify the properties of the mixed network equilibrium model and the efficiency of the iterative algorithm.展开更多
A fuzzy modeling method for complex systems is studied. The notation of general stochastic neural network (GSNN) is presented and a new modeling method is given based on the combination of the modified Takagi and Suge...A fuzzy modeling method for complex systems is studied. The notation of general stochastic neural network (GSNN) is presented and a new modeling method is given based on the combination of the modified Takagi and Sugeno's (MTS) fuzzy model and one-order GSNN. Using expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm, parameter estimation and model selection procedures are given. It avoids the shortcomings brought by other methods such as BP algorithm, when the number of parameters is large, BP algorithm is still difficult to apply directly without fine tuning and subjective tinkering. Finally, the simulated example demonstrates the effectiveness.展开更多
In order to reflect the stochastic characteristics of structures more comprehensively and accurately, a theory and method for modeling of structures with stochastic parameters is presented by using probability finite ...In order to reflect the stochastic characteristics of structures more comprehensively and accurately, a theory and method for modeling of structures with stochastic parameters is presented by using probability finite element method and stochastic experiment data of structures based on the modeling of structures with deterministic parameters. Double-decker space frame is taken as an example to validate this theory and method, good results are gained.展开更多
For developing ultra-high voltage(UHV) AC power transmission systems,it is important to precisely estimate and to limit the radio interference(RI) level of power lines.Based on the stochastic characteristics in amplit...For developing ultra-high voltage(UHV) AC power transmission systems,it is important to precisely estimate and to limit the radio interference(RI) level of power lines.Based on the stochastic characteristics in amplitude and repetition rate of induced corona current,by using the probability theory and mathematical statistics,we establish a stochastic model for the wide-sense stationary random process of corona discharges.Then combining the stochastic model with model-propagation-analysis method,the RI levels under three-phase UHV AC transmission lines are calculated.The results of the calculation based on stochastic model method and International Council on Large Electric Systems(CIGRE) excitation function are compared with that based on semi-empirical method and some other excitation functions.The stochastic model based on different excitation functions is also adopted to simulate the RI levels under finite test lines with two opened terminations.The results indicate that with the same average maximum gradient on conductor surface and the same conductor type,the number of corona discharge per unit length is one of the main reasons that causes the difference between different excitation functions.It is also concluded that for a long test line,the effect of standing wave on RI field strength is negligible in the middle of the line,but obvious near both terminations: for a 10-km line,the maximum difference in RI field strength is 2.78 dB,between the peak value of the standing wave near the ends and the steady value near the middle of the line.展开更多
Markov random fields(MRF) have potential for predicting and simulating petroleum reservoir facies more accurately from sample data such as logging, core data and seismic data because they can incorporate interclass re...Markov random fields(MRF) have potential for predicting and simulating petroleum reservoir facies more accurately from sample data such as logging, core data and seismic data because they can incorporate interclass relationships. While, many relative studies were based on Markov chain, not MRF, and using Markov chain model for 3D reservoir stochastic simulation has always been the difficulty in reservoir stochastic simulation. MRF was proposed to simulate type variables(for example lithofacies) in this work. Firstly, a Gibbs distribution was proposed to characterize reservoir heterogeneity for building 3-D(three-dimensional) MRF. Secondly, maximum likelihood approaches of model parameters on well data and training image were considered. Compared with the simulation results of MC(Markov chain), the MRF can better reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of sand body.展开更多
The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertain...The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertainty, the cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is adopted. Travelers are assumed to choose the paths with the minimum perceived generalized path costs, consisting of time prospect value(PV) and monetary cost. At equilibrium with a given TCS, the endogenous reference points and credit price remain constant, and are consistent with the equilibrium flow pattern and the corresponding travel time distributions of road sub-network. To describe such an equilibrium state, the CPT-based stochastic user equilibrium(SUE) conditions can be formulated under TCS. An equivalent variational inequality(VI) model embedding a parameterized fixed point(FP) model is then established, with its properties analyzed theoretically. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed to solve the model, which contains two-layer iterations. The outer iteration is a bisection-based contraction method to find the equilibrium credit price, and the inner iteration is essentially the method of successive averages(MSA) to determine the corresponding CPT-based SUE network flow pattern. Numerical experiments are provided to validate the model and algorithm.展开更多
The goal of this research is to develop an emergency disaster relief mobilization tool that determines the mobilization levels of commodities, medical service and helicopters （which will be utilized as the primary me...The goal of this research is to develop an emergency disaster relief mobilization tool that determines the mobilization levels of commodities, medical service and helicopters （which will be utilized as the primary means of transport in a mountain region struck by a devastating earthquake） at pointed temporary facilities, including helicopter-based delivery plans for commodities and evacuation plans for critical population, in which relief demands are considered as uncertain. The proposed mobilization model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer program with two objectives： maximizing the expected fill rate and minimizing the total expenditure of the mobilization campaign. Scenario decomposition based heuristic algorithms are also developed according to the structure of the proposed model. The computational results of a numerical example, which is constructed from the scenarios of the Great Wenchuan Earthquake, indicate that the model can provide valuable decision support for the mobilization of post-earthquake relief, and the proposed algorithms also have high efficiency in computation.展开更多
Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can b...Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.展开更多
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China (4007401340134010)Chinese Joint Seismological Science Foundation (042002) and the project during the Tenth Five-year Plan.
文摘Based on the stochastic AMR model, this paper constructs man-made earthquake catalogues to investigate the property of parameter estimation of the model. Then the stochastic AMR model is applied to the study of several strong earthquakes in China and New Zealand. Akaikes AIC criterion is used to discriminate whether an accelerating mode of earthquake activity precedes those events or not. Finally, regional accelerating seismic activity and possible prediction approach for future strong earthquakes are discussed.
基金Projects(51804113,51434006,51874130)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(E51768)supported by the Doctoral Initiation Foundation of Hunan University of Science and Technology,China+1 种基金Project(E61610)supported by the Postdoctoral Research Foundation of Hunan University of Science and Technology,ChinaProject(E21734)supported by the Open Foundation of Work Safety Key Lab on Prevention and Control of Gas and Roof Disasters for Southern Coal Mines,China
文摘A new horn failure mechanism was constructed for tunnel faces in the soft rock mass by means of the logarithmic spiral curve. The seismic action was incorporated into the horn failure mechanism using the pseudo-static method. Considering the randomness of rock mass parameters and loads, a three-dimensional (3D) stochastic collapse model was established. Reliability analysis of seismic stability of tunnel faces was presented via the kinematical approach and the response surface method. The results show that, the reliability of tunnel faces is significantly affected by the supporting pressure, geological strength index, uniaxial compressive strength, rock bulk density and seismic forces. It is worth noting that, if the effect of seismic force was not considered, the stability of tunnel faces would be obviously overestimated. However, the correlation between horizontal and vertical seismic forces can be ignored under the condition of low calculation accuracy.
基金Projects(51378119,51578150)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘Advanced traveler information systems （ATIS） can not only improve drivers＇ accessibility to the more accurate route travel time information, but also can improve drivers＇ adaptability to the stochastic network capacity degradations. In this paper, a mixed stochastic user equilibrium model was proposed to describe the interactive route choice behaviors between ATIS equipped and unequipped drivers on a degradable transport network. In the proposed model the information accessibility of equipped drivers was reflected by lower degree of uncertainty in their stochastic equilibrium flow distributions, and their behavioral adaptability was captured by multiple equilibrium behaviors over the stochastic network state set. The mixed equilibrium model was formulated as a fixed point problem defined in the mixed route flows, and its solution was achieved by executing an iterative algorithm. Numerical experiments were provided to verify the properties of the mixed network equilibrium model and the efficiency of the iterative algorithm.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （10571036） the Key Discipline Development Program of Beijing Municipal Commission （XK100080537）
文摘A fuzzy modeling method for complex systems is studied. The notation of general stochastic neural network (GSNN) is presented and a new modeling method is given based on the combination of the modified Takagi and Sugeno's (MTS) fuzzy model and one-order GSNN. Using expectation-maximization(EM) algorithm, parameter estimation and model selection procedures are given. It avoids the shortcomings brought by other methods such as BP algorithm, when the number of parameters is large, BP algorithm is still difficult to apply directly without fine tuning and subjective tinkering. Finally, the simulated example demonstrates the effectiveness.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (5963140) Doctor Point Fund of National Education Committee Parent Company Fund of Aviation Industry
文摘In order to reflect the stochastic characteristics of structures more comprehensively and accurately, a theory and method for modeling of structures with stochastic parameters is presented by using probability finite element method and stochastic experiment data of structures based on the modeling of structures with deterministic parameters. Double-decker space frame is taken as an example to validate this theory and method, good results are gained.
基金supported by Science and Technology Project of SGCC(SG1021)
文摘For developing ultra-high voltage(UHV) AC power transmission systems,it is important to precisely estimate and to limit the radio interference(RI) level of power lines.Based on the stochastic characteristics in amplitude and repetition rate of induced corona current,by using the probability theory and mathematical statistics,we establish a stochastic model for the wide-sense stationary random process of corona discharges.Then combining the stochastic model with model-propagation-analysis method,the RI levels under three-phase UHV AC transmission lines are calculated.The results of the calculation based on stochastic model method and International Council on Large Electric Systems(CIGRE) excitation function are compared with that based on semi-empirical method and some other excitation functions.The stochastic model based on different excitation functions is also adopted to simulate the RI levels under finite test lines with two opened terminations.The results indicate that with the same average maximum gradient on conductor surface and the same conductor type,the number of corona discharge per unit length is one of the main reasons that causes the difference between different excitation functions.It is also concluded that for a long test line,the effect of standing wave on RI field strength is negligible in the middle of the line,but obvious near both terminations: for a 10-km line,the maximum difference in RI field strength is 2.78 dB,between the peak value of the standing wave near the ends and the steady value near the middle of the line.
基金Project(2011ZX05002-005-006)supported by the National "Twelveth Five Year" Science and Technology Major Research Program,China
文摘Markov random fields(MRF) have potential for predicting and simulating petroleum reservoir facies more accurately from sample data such as logging, core data and seismic data because they can incorporate interclass relationships. While, many relative studies were based on Markov chain, not MRF, and using Markov chain model for 3D reservoir stochastic simulation has always been the difficulty in reservoir stochastic simulation. MRF was proposed to simulate type variables(for example lithofacies) in this work. Firstly, a Gibbs distribution was proposed to characterize reservoir heterogeneity for building 3-D(three-dimensional) MRF. Secondly, maximum likelihood approaches of model parameters on well data and training image were considered. Compared with the simulation results of MC(Markov chain), the MRF can better reflect the spatial distribution characteristics of sand body.
基金Project(BX20180268)supported by National Postdoctoral Program for Innovative Talent,ChinaProject(300102228101)supported by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China+1 种基金Project(51578150)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(18YJCZH130)supported by the Humanities and Social Science Project of Chinese Ministry of Education
文摘The traffic equilibrium assignment problem under tradable credit scheme(TCS) in a bi-modal stochastic transportation network is investigated in this paper. To describe traveler’s risk-taking behaviors under uncertainty, the cumulative prospect theory(CPT) is adopted. Travelers are assumed to choose the paths with the minimum perceived generalized path costs, consisting of time prospect value(PV) and monetary cost. At equilibrium with a given TCS, the endogenous reference points and credit price remain constant, and are consistent with the equilibrium flow pattern and the corresponding travel time distributions of road sub-network. To describe such an equilibrium state, the CPT-based stochastic user equilibrium(SUE) conditions can be formulated under TCS. An equivalent variational inequality(VI) model embedding a parameterized fixed point(FP) model is then established, with its properties analyzed theoretically. A heuristic solution algorithm is developed to solve the model, which contains two-layer iterations. The outer iteration is a bisection-based contraction method to find the equilibrium credit price, and the inner iteration is essentially the method of successive averages(MSA) to determine the corresponding CPT-based SUE network flow pattern. Numerical experiments are provided to validate the model and algorithm.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China 71371181 91024006China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (2012M521918)
文摘The goal of this research is to develop an emergency disaster relief mobilization tool that determines the mobilization levels of commodities, medical service and helicopters （which will be utilized as the primary means of transport in a mountain region struck by a devastating earthquake） at pointed temporary facilities, including helicopter-based delivery plans for commodities and evacuation plans for critical population, in which relief demands are considered as uncertain. The proposed mobilization model is a two-stage stochastic mixed integer program with two objectives： maximizing the expected fill rate and minimizing the total expenditure of the mobilization campaign. Scenario decomposition based heuristic algorithms are also developed according to the structure of the proposed model. The computational results of a numerical example, which is constructed from the scenarios of the Great Wenchuan Earthquake, indicate that the model can provide valuable decision support for the mobilization of post-earthquake relief, and the proposed algorithms also have high efficiency in computation.
基金Project(2023YFB4302500)supported by the National Key R&D Program of ChinaProject(52078485)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProjects(2021-Major-16,2021-Special-08)supported by the Science and Technology Research and Development Program Project of China Railway Group Limited。
文摘Running safety assessment and tracking irregularity parametric sensitivity analysis of high-speed maglev train-bridge system are of great concern,especially need perfect refinement models in which all properties can be well characterized based on various stochastic excitations.A three-dimensional refined spatial random vibration analysis model of high-speed maglev train-bridge coupled system is established in this paper,in which multi-source uncertainty excitation can be considered simultaneously,and the probability density evolution method(PDEM)is adopted to reveal the system-specific uncertainty dynamic characteristic.The motion equation of the maglev vehicle model is composed of multi-rigid bodies with a total 210-degrees of freedom for each vehicle,and a refined electromagnetic force-air gap model is used to account for the interaction and coupling effect between the moving train and track beam bridges,which are directly established by using finite element method.The model is proven to be applicable by comparing with Monte Carlo simulation.By applying the proposed stochastic framework to the high maglev line,the random dynamic responses of maglev vehicles running on the bridges are studied for running safety and stability assessment.Moreover,the effects of track irregularity wavelength range under different amplitude and running speeds on the coupled system are investigated.The results show that the augmentation of train speed will move backward the sensitive wavelength interval,and track irregularity amplitude influences the response remarkably in the sensitive interval.
