This paper proposes a robust method of parameter estimation and data classification for multiple-structural data based on the linear error in variable（EIV） model.The traditional EIV model fitting problem is analyzed...This paper proposes a robust method of parameter estimation and data classification for multiple-structural data based on the linear error in variable（EIV） model.The traditional EIV model fitting problem is analyzed and a robust growing algorithm is developed to extract the underlying linear structure of the observed data.Under the structural density assumption,the C-step technique borrowed from the Rousseeuw＇s robust MCD estimator is used to keep the algorithm robust and the mean-shift algorithm is adopted to ensure a good initialization.To eliminate the model ambiguities of the multiple-structural data,statistical hypotheses tests are used to refine the data classification and improve the accuracy of the model parameter estimation.Experiments show that the efficiency and robustness of the proposed algorithm.展开更多
气候系统是典型的非平稳性系统,然而对于气候观测数据的处理通常是在时间序列平稳的假定下完成的,比如气温和降水的多步预报,这通常会导致预报准确度较低。为改进该缺陷,首先将非平稳数据序列分解成平稳的、多尺度特征的本征模态函数分...气候系统是典型的非平稳性系统,然而对于气候观测数据的处理通常是在时间序列平稳的假定下完成的,比如气温和降水的多步预报,这通常会导致预报准确度较低。为改进该缺陷,首先将非平稳数据序列分解成平稳的、多尺度特征的本征模态函数分量(IMF),再使用数值集合预报与逐步回归分析相结合的方式对每一个IMF分量构建不同的预报模型,最后线性拟合成预报结果。通过Visual Studio 2008开发平台使用上述方法建立了一个短期气候预报系统,采用广西区88个气象站1957—2005年的2月距平气温数据进行实际验证。结果表明,相对于普通预测和单一预测方法,加入了EMD和集合预报技术的方法在仅用历史资料进行多步预测的情况下,对于气候的变化趋势以及突发性气候具有更好的预报能力。展开更多
基金supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China (863 Program) (2007AA04Z227)
文摘This paper proposes a robust method of parameter estimation and data classification for multiple-structural data based on the linear error in variable（EIV） model.The traditional EIV model fitting problem is analyzed and a robust growing algorithm is developed to extract the underlying linear structure of the observed data.Under the structural density assumption,the C-step technique borrowed from the Rousseeuw＇s robust MCD estimator is used to keep the algorithm robust and the mean-shift algorithm is adopted to ensure a good initialization.To eliminate the model ambiguities of the multiple-structural data,statistical hypotheses tests are used to refine the data classification and improve the accuracy of the model parameter estimation.Experiments show that the efficiency and robustness of the proposed algorithm.
文摘气候系统是典型的非平稳性系统,然而对于气候观测数据的处理通常是在时间序列平稳的假定下完成的,比如气温和降水的多步预报,这通常会导致预报准确度较低。为改进该缺陷,首先将非平稳数据序列分解成平稳的、多尺度特征的本征模态函数分量(IMF),再使用数值集合预报与逐步回归分析相结合的方式对每一个IMF分量构建不同的预报模型,最后线性拟合成预报结果。通过Visual Studio 2008开发平台使用上述方法建立了一个短期气候预报系统,采用广西区88个气象站1957—2005年的2月距平气温数据进行实际验证。结果表明,相对于普通预测和单一预测方法,加入了EMD和集合预报技术的方法在仅用历史资料进行多步预测的情况下,对于气候的变化趋势以及突发性气候具有更好的预报能力。
