To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, whic...To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud(INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map(IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results.Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.展开更多
区域水资源承载力状态评价对于查明区域水资源现状从而保障区域社会、经济发展具有十分重要的意义.为科学、合理地评价区域水资源承载力状况,提出水资源承载力综合评价的组合权重?MNCM(Multidimensional Normal Cloud Model)法.首先,改...区域水资源承载力状态评价对于查明区域水资源现状从而保障区域社会、经济发展具有十分重要的意义.为科学、合理地评价区域水资源承载力状况,提出水资源承载力综合评价的组合权重?MNCM(Multidimensional Normal Cloud Model)法.首先,改进AGA-AHP(Accelerating Genetic Algorithm based Analytic Hierarchy Process)法以优化专家评价矩阵并确定主观权重,运用熵权法确定客观权重,应用组合权重公式得到评价指标的组合权重;其次,采用多维正态云模型法得到确定度;最后,对评价指标进行了障碍因子诊断.运用组合权重?MNCM法对江苏省水资源承载力进行评价,并与单一云模型法和AHP-TOPSIS(Analytic Hierarchy Process?Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)法进行对比.该评价方法考虑了评价过程中存在的模糊性和随机性,能够高效、直观地得到评价结果,并且诊断出指标的障碍度及其时间变化规律,可为水资源承载力评价方法提供新思路.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71501183).
文摘To cope with multi-directional transmission coupling,spreading, amplification, and chain reaction of risks during multiproject parallel construction of warships, a risk transmission evaluation method is proposed, which integrates an intuitionistic cloud model with a fuzzy cognitive map. By virtue of expectancy Ex, entropy En, and hyper entropy He, the risk fuzziness and randomness of the knowledge of experts are organically combined to develop a method for converting bi-linguistic variable decision-making information into the quantitative information of the intuitionistic normal cloud(INC) model. Subsequently, the threshold function and weighted summation operation in the traditional fuzzy cognitive map is converted into the INC ordered weighted averaging operator to create the risk transmission model based on the intuitionistic fuzzy cognitive map(IFCM) and the algorithm for solving it. Subsequently, the risk influence sequencing method based on INC and the risk rating method based on nearness are proposed on the basis of Monte Carlo simulation in order to realize the mutual conversion of the qualitative and quantitative information in the risk evaluation results.Example analysis is presented to verify the effectiveness and practicality of the methods.
文摘区域水资源承载力状态评价对于查明区域水资源现状从而保障区域社会、经济发展具有十分重要的意义.为科学、合理地评价区域水资源承载力状况,提出水资源承载力综合评价的组合权重?MNCM(Multidimensional Normal Cloud Model)法.首先,改进AGA-AHP(Accelerating Genetic Algorithm based Analytic Hierarchy Process)法以优化专家评价矩阵并确定主观权重,运用熵权法确定客观权重,应用组合权重公式得到评价指标的组合权重;其次,采用多维正态云模型法得到确定度;最后,对评价指标进行了障碍因子诊断.运用组合权重?MNCM法对江苏省水资源承载力进行评价,并与单一云模型法和AHP-TOPSIS(Analytic Hierarchy Process?Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution)法进行对比.该评价方法考虑了评价过程中存在的模糊性和随机性,能够高效、直观地得到评价结果,并且诊断出指标的障碍度及其时间变化规律,可为水资源承载力评价方法提供新思路.
