为了提高剩余寿命预测的可信度,针对进行过加速老化试验的产品,提出利用Gamma过程参数的非共轭先验分布进行Bayesian统计推断的剩余寿命预测方法.将加速老化数据作为先验信息,利用Gamma过程进行老化建模,通过加速因子获得形状参数在工...为了提高剩余寿命预测的可信度,针对进行过加速老化试验的产品,提出利用Gamma过程参数的非共轭先验分布进行Bayesian统计推断的剩余寿命预测方法.将加速老化数据作为先验信息,利用Gamma过程进行老化建模,通过加速因子获得形状参数在工作应力下的折算值,使用Anderson-Darling统计量确定随机参数的先验分布.将产品工作中的少量实测数据作为现场信息,利用基于Gibbs抽样的Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)仿真得到参数的后验均值.以某型导弹电连接器为例说明了该方法的研究意义和工程应用价值.展开更多
A condition-based maintenance model for gamma deteriorating system under continuous inspection is studied. This methodology uses a gamma distribution to model the material degradation, and the impact of imperfect main...A condition-based maintenance model for gamma deteriorating system under continuous inspection is studied. This methodology uses a gamma distribution to model the material degradation, and the impact of imperfect maintenance actions on the system reliability is investigated. The state of a degrading system immediately after the imperfect maintenance action is assumed as a random variable and the maintenance time follows a geometric process. Furthermore, the explicit expressions for the long-run average cost and availability per unit time of the system are evaluated, an optimal policy （ε^＊） could be determined numeri- cally or analytically according to the optimization model. At last, a numerical example for a degrading system modeled by a gamma process is presented to demonstrate the use of this policy in practical applications.展开更多
An optimal replacement model for gamma deteriorating systems is studied. This methodology uses a gamma distribution to model the material degradation, and the impact of imperfect maintenance actions on the system reli...An optimal replacement model for gamma deteriorating systems is studied. This methodology uses a gamma distribution to model the material degradation, and the impact of imperfect maintenance actions on the system reliability is investigated. The state of a degrading system immediately after the imperfect maintenance action is assumed as a random variable and the maintenance time follows a geometric process. A maintenance policy （N） is applied by which the system will be repaired whenever it experiences Nth preventive maintenance （PM）, and an optimal policy （N＊） could be determined numerically or analytically for minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time. Finally, a numerical example is presented to demonstrate the use of this policy.展开更多
文摘为了提高剩余寿命预测的可信度,针对进行过加速老化试验的产品,提出利用Gamma过程参数的非共轭先验分布进行Bayesian统计推断的剩余寿命预测方法.将加速老化数据作为先验信息,利用Gamma过程进行老化建模,通过加速因子获得形状参数在工作应力下的折算值,使用Anderson-Darling统计量确定随机参数的先验分布.将产品工作中的少量实测数据作为现场信息,利用基于Gibbs抽样的Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)仿真得到参数的后验均值.以某型导弹电连接器为例说明了该方法的研究意义和工程应用价值.
基金supported by the National watural Science Foundation of China (60904002)
文摘A condition-based maintenance model for gamma deteriorating system under continuous inspection is studied. This methodology uses a gamma distribution to model the material degradation, and the impact of imperfect maintenance actions on the system reliability is investigated. The state of a degrading system immediately after the imperfect maintenance action is assumed as a random variable and the maintenance time follows a geometric process. Furthermore, the explicit expressions for the long-run average cost and availability per unit time of the system are evaluated, an optimal policy （ε^＊） could be determined numeri- cally or analytically according to the optimization model. At last, a numerical example for a degrading system modeled by a gamma process is presented to demonstrate the use of this policy in practical applications.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (60904002)
文摘An optimal replacement model for gamma deteriorating systems is studied. This methodology uses a gamma distribution to model the material degradation, and the impact of imperfect maintenance actions on the system reliability is investigated. The state of a degrading system immediately after the imperfect maintenance action is assumed as a random variable and the maintenance time follows a geometric process. A maintenance policy （N） is applied by which the system will be repaired whenever it experiences Nth preventive maintenance （PM）, and an optimal policy （N＊） could be determined numerically or analytically for minimizing the long-run average cost per unit time. Finally, a numerical example is presented to demonstrate the use of this policy.
基金Natural Science Foundation of China(11271136)Science Foundation of Fujian Educational Committee(JA12301)Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province(2012J01282)
