The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR...The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.展开更多
The explosive initiator is one kind of sensitivity products with long life and high reliability.In order to improve the storage reliability assessment,the method of storage reliability assessment for explosive initiat...The explosive initiator is one kind of sensitivity products with long life and high reliability.In order to improve the storage reliability assessment,the method of storage reliability assessment for explosive initiator was proposed based on time series model using the sensitivity test data.In the method,the up and down test was used to estimate the distribution parameters of threshold.And an approach to design the up and down test was present to draw better estimations.Furthermore,the method of shrinkage estimation was introduced to get a better estimation of scale parameter by combining the sample information with prior information.The simulation result shows that the shrinkage estimation is better than traditional estimation under certain conditions.With the distribution parameters estimations,the time series models were used to describe the changing trends of distribution parameters along with storage time.Then for a fixed storage time,the distribution parameters were predicted based on the models.Finally,the confidence interval of storage reliability was obtained by fiducial inference.The illustrative example shows that the method is available for storage reliability assessment of the explosive initiator with high reliability.展开更多
For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory,as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation,the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression ...For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory,as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation,the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test.These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime.As an example,the common exponential distribution is used here,and Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters' posterior distribution.Also,the parameters' Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition.The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived.展开更多
With the support of the Fundamental Reliability Theoretical Research (FRTR) Foundation of the Quality Control Bureau of Ministry of Astronautics (MOA), PRC, 9 Chinese institutes and universities have worked for years ...With the support of the Fundamental Reliability Theoretical Research (FRTR) Foundation of the Quality Control Bureau of Ministry of Astronautics (MOA), PRC, 9 Chinese institutes and universities have worked for years on reliability statistics problems pending to be solved in space research and development. This paper gives a brief review of our main research results, including (1) Results on Normal Distributions; (2) Results on Weibull Distributions; (3) Results on the Synthesisof System Reliability-Theoretical Method; (4) Results on the Synthesis of System Reliability-Approximation Method: Binomial Distribution, Exponential Distribution, Weibull Distribution, Parallel System, General Cases; (5) Structual Reliability; (6) Zero-Failure Reliability Estimation; (7) Storage Life and Others. All these results can be acquired from the Quality Control Bureau of the Ministry of Aero-Space Industry (MAS).展开更多
基金supported by the National Defense Foundation of China(71601183)
文摘The degradation data of multi-components in missile is derived by periodical testing. How to use these data to assess the storage reliability (SR) of the whole missile is a difficult problem in current research. An SR assessment model based on competition failure of multi-components in missile is proposed. By analyzing the missile life profile and its storage failure feature, the key components in missile are obtained and the characteristics voltage is assumed to be its key performance parameter. When the voltage testing data of key components in missile are available, a state space model (SSM) is applied to obtain the whole missile degradation state, which is defined as the missile degradation degree (DD). A Wiener process with the time-scale model (TSM) is applied to build the degradation failure model with individual variability and nonlinearity. The Weibull distribution and proportional risk model are applied to build an outburst failure model with performance degradation effect. Furthermore, a competition failure model with the correlation between degradation failure and outburst failure is proposed. A numerical example with a set of missiles in storage is analyzed to demonstrate the accuracy and superiority of the proposed model.
文摘The explosive initiator is one kind of sensitivity products with long life and high reliability.In order to improve the storage reliability assessment,the method of storage reliability assessment for explosive initiator was proposed based on time series model using the sensitivity test data.In the method,the up and down test was used to estimate the distribution parameters of threshold.And an approach to design the up and down test was present to draw better estimations.Furthermore,the method of shrinkage estimation was introduced to get a better estimation of scale parameter by combining the sample information with prior information.The simulation result shows that the shrinkage estimation is better than traditional estimation under certain conditions.With the distribution parameters estimations,the time series models were used to describe the changing trends of distribution parameters along with storage time.Then for a fixed storage time,the distribution parameters were predicted based on the models.Finally,the confidence interval of storage reliability was obtained by fiducial inference.The illustrative example shows that the method is available for storage reliability assessment of the explosive initiator with high reliability.
基金Sponsored by National Nature Science Foundation of China(70771038).
文摘For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory,as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation,the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test.These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime.As an example,the common exponential distribution is used here,and Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters' posterior distribution.Also,the parameters' Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition.The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived.
文摘With the support of the Fundamental Reliability Theoretical Research (FRTR) Foundation of the Quality Control Bureau of Ministry of Astronautics (MOA), PRC, 9 Chinese institutes and universities have worked for years on reliability statistics problems pending to be solved in space research and development. This paper gives a brief review of our main research results, including (1) Results on Normal Distributions; (2) Results on Weibull Distributions; (3) Results on the Synthesisof System Reliability-Theoretical Method; (4) Results on the Synthesis of System Reliability-Approximation Method: Binomial Distribution, Exponential Distribution, Weibull Distribution, Parallel System, General Cases; (5) Structual Reliability; (6) Zero-Failure Reliability Estimation; (7) Storage Life and Others. All these results can be acquired from the Quality Control Bureau of the Ministry of Aero-Space Industry (MAS).
