摘要
For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory,as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation,the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test.These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime.As an example,the common exponential distribution is used here,and Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters' posterior distribution.Also,the parameters' Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition.The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived.
For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory, as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation, the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test. These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime. As an example, the common exponential distribution is used here, and Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters＇ posterior distribution. Also, the parameters＇ Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived.
基金
Sponsored by National Nature Science Foundation of China(70771038).
关键词
弹药储藏
稳定性评估
贝叶斯分析
统计数学
applied statistics mathematics
Bayesian analysis
ammunition
storage reliability
Gibbs sampler
MCMC method
作者简介
LIN Jing（1980-）, doctoral student, lindammay@163.com;
ZHU Hui-ming（1966-）, professor, doctoral adviser
