Aviation accidents are currently one of the leading causes of significant injuries and deaths worldwide. This entices researchers to investigate aircraft safety using data analysis approaches based on an advanced mach...Aviation accidents are currently one of the leading causes of significant injuries and deaths worldwide. This entices researchers to investigate aircraft safety using data analysis approaches based on an advanced machine learning algorithm.To assess aviation safety and identify the causes of incidents, a classification model with light gradient boosting machine (LGBM)based on the aviation safety reporting system (ASRS) has been developed. It is improved by k-fold cross-validation with hybrid sampling model (HSCV), which may boost classification performance and maintain data balance. The results show that employing the LGBM-HSCV model can significantly improve accuracy while alleviating data imbalance. Vertical comparison with other cross-validation (CV) methods and lateral comparison with different fold times comprise the comparative approach. Aside from the comparison, two further CV approaches based on the improved method in this study are discussed:one with a different sampling and folding order, and the other with more CV. According to the assessment indices with different methods, the LGBMHSCV model proposed here is effective at detecting incident causes. The improved model for imbalanced data categorization proposed may serve as a point of reference for similar data processing, and the model’s accurate identification of civil aviation incident causes can assist to improve civil aviation safety.展开更多
Background Cardiovascular diseases are closely linked to atherosclerotic plaque development and rupture.Plaque progression prediction is of fundamental significance to cardiovascular research and disease diagnosis,pre...Background Cardiovascular diseases are closely linked to atherosclerotic plaque development and rupture.Plaque progression prediction is of fundamental significance to cardiovascular research and disease diagnosis,prevention,and treatment.Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)is an extension of linear model for categorical responses while considering the correlation among observations.Methods Magnetic resonance image(MRI)data of carotid atheroscleroticplaques were acquired from 20 patients with consent obtained and 3D thin-layer models were constructed to calculate plaque stress and strain for plaque progression prediction.Data for ten morphological and biomechanical risk factors included wall thickness(WT),lipid percent(LP),minimum cap thickness(MinCT),plaque area(PA),plaque burden(PB),lumen area(LA),maximum plaque wall stress(MPWS),maximum plaque wall strain(MPWSn),average plaque wall stress(APWS),and average plaque wall strain(APWSn)were extracted from all slices for analysis.Wall thickness increase(WTI),plaque burden increase(PBI)and plaque area increase(PAI) were chosen as three measures for plaque progression.Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)with 5-fold cross-validation strategy were used to calculate prediction accuracy for each predictor and identify optimal predictor with the highest prediction accuracy defined as sum of sensitivity and specificity.All 201 MRI slices were randomly divided into 4 training subgroups and 1 verification subgroup.The training subgroups were used for model fitting,and the verification subgroup was used to estimate the model.All combinations(total1023)of 10 risk factors were feed to GLMM and the prediction accuracy of each predictor were selected from the point on the ROC(receiver operating characteristic)curve with the highest sum of specificity and sensitivity.Results LA was the best single predictor for PBI with the highest prediction accuracy(1.360 1),and the area under of the ROC curve(AUC)is0.654 0,followed by APWSn(1.336 3)with AUC=0.6342.The optimal predictor among all possible combinations for PBI was the combination of LA,PA,LP,WT,MPWS and MPWSn with prediction accuracy=1.414 6(AUC=0.715 8).LA was once again the best single predictor for PAI with the highest prediction accuracy(1.184 6)with AUC=0.606 4,followed by MPWSn(1. 183 2)with AUC=0.6084.The combination of PA,PB,WT,MPWS,MPWSn and APWSn gave the best prediction accuracy(1.302 5)for PAI,and the AUC value is 0.6657.PA was the best single predictor for WTI with highest prediction accuracy(1.288 7)with AUC=0.641 5,followed by WT(1.254 0),with AUC=0.6097.The combination of PA,PB,WT,LP,MinCT,MPWS and MPWS was the best predictor for WTI with prediction accuracy as 1.314 0,with AUC=0.6552.This indicated that PBI was a more predictable measure than WTI and PAI. The combinational predictors improved prediction accuracy by 9.95%,4.01%and 1.96%over the best single predictors for PAI,PBI and WTI(AUC values improved by9.78%,9.45%,and 2.14%),respectively.Conclusions The use of GLMM with 5-fold cross-validation strategy combining both morphological and biomechanical risk factors could potentially improve the accuracy of carotid plaque progression prediction.This study suggests that a linear combination of multiple predictors can provide potential improvement to existing plaque assessment schemes.展开更多
Rockburst is a common geological disaster in underground engineering,which seriously threatens the safety of personnel,equipment and property.Utilizing machine learning models to evaluate risk of rockburst is graduall...Rockburst is a common geological disaster in underground engineering,which seriously threatens the safety of personnel,equipment and property.Utilizing machine learning models to evaluate risk of rockburst is gradually becoming a trend.In this study,the integrated algorithms under Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)framework were used to evaluate and classify rockburst intensity.First,a total of 301 rock burst data samples were obtained from a case database,and the data were preprocessed using synthetic minority over-sampling technique(SMOTE).Then,the rockburst evaluation models including GBDT,eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM),and Categorical Features Gradient Boosting(CatBoost)were established,and the optimal hyperparameters of the models were obtained through random search grid and five-fold cross-validation.Afterwards,use the optimal hyperparameter configuration to fit the evaluation models,and analyze these models using test set.In order to evaluate the performance,metrics including accuracy,precision,recall,and F1-score were selected to analyze and compare with other machine learning models.Finally,the trained models were used to conduct rock burst risk assessment on rock samples from a mine in Shanxi Province,China,and providing theoretical guidance for the mine's safe production work.The models under the GBDT framework perform well in the evaluation of rockburst levels,and the proposed methods can provide a reliable reference for rockburst risk level analysis and safety management.展开更多
The automatic control of cleaning need to be based on the total amount of manure in the house. Therefore, this article established a prediction model for the total amount of manure in a pig house and took the number o...The automatic control of cleaning need to be based on the total amount of manure in the house. Therefore, this article established a prediction model for the total amount of manure in a pig house and took the number of pigs in the house, age, feed intake,feeding time, the time when the ammonia concentration increased the fastest and the daily fixed cleaning time as variable factors for modelling, so that the model could obtain the current manure output according to the real-time input of time. A Backpropagation(BP) neural network was used for training. The cross-validation method was used to select the best hyperparameters, and the genetic algorithm(GA), particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm and mind evolutionary algorithm(MEA) were selected to optimize the initial network weights. The results showed that the model could predict the amount of manure in real-time according to the model input. After the cross-validation method determined the hyperparameters, the GA, PSO and MEA were used to optimize the manure prediction model. The GA had the best average performance.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China Civil Aviation Joint Fund (U1833110)Research on the Dual Prevention Mechanism and Intelligent Management Technology f or Civil Aviation Safety Risks (YK23-03-05)。
文摘Aviation accidents are currently one of the leading causes of significant injuries and deaths worldwide. This entices researchers to investigate aircraft safety using data analysis approaches based on an advanced machine learning algorithm.To assess aviation safety and identify the causes of incidents, a classification model with light gradient boosting machine (LGBM)based on the aviation safety reporting system (ASRS) has been developed. It is improved by k-fold cross-validation with hybrid sampling model (HSCV), which may boost classification performance and maintain data balance. The results show that employing the LGBM-HSCV model can significantly improve accuracy while alleviating data imbalance. Vertical comparison with other cross-validation (CV) methods and lateral comparison with different fold times comprise the comparative approach. Aside from the comparison, two further CV approaches based on the improved method in this study are discussed:one with a different sampling and folding order, and the other with more CV. According to the assessment indices with different methods, the LGBMHSCV model proposed here is effective at detecting incident causes. The improved model for imbalanced data categorization proposed may serve as a point of reference for similar data processing, and the model’s accurate identification of civil aviation incident causes can assist to improve civil aviation safety.
基金supported in part by National Sciences Foundation of China grant ( 11672001)Jiangsu Province Science and Technology Agency grant ( BE2016785)supported in part by Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province grant ( KYCX18_0156)
文摘Background Cardiovascular diseases are closely linked to atherosclerotic plaque development and rupture.Plaque progression prediction is of fundamental significance to cardiovascular research and disease diagnosis,prevention,and treatment.Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)is an extension of linear model for categorical responses while considering the correlation among observations.Methods Magnetic resonance image(MRI)data of carotid atheroscleroticplaques were acquired from 20 patients with consent obtained and 3D thin-layer models were constructed to calculate plaque stress and strain for plaque progression prediction.Data for ten morphological and biomechanical risk factors included wall thickness(WT),lipid percent(LP),minimum cap thickness(MinCT),plaque area(PA),plaque burden(PB),lumen area(LA),maximum plaque wall stress(MPWS),maximum plaque wall strain(MPWSn),average plaque wall stress(APWS),and average plaque wall strain(APWSn)were extracted from all slices for analysis.Wall thickness increase(WTI),plaque burden increase(PBI)and plaque area increase(PAI) were chosen as three measures for plaque progression.Generalized linear mixed models(GLMM)with 5-fold cross-validation strategy were used to calculate prediction accuracy for each predictor and identify optimal predictor with the highest prediction accuracy defined as sum of sensitivity and specificity.All 201 MRI slices were randomly divided into 4 training subgroups and 1 verification subgroup.The training subgroups were used for model fitting,and the verification subgroup was used to estimate the model.All combinations(total1023)of 10 risk factors were feed to GLMM and the prediction accuracy of each predictor were selected from the point on the ROC(receiver operating characteristic)curve with the highest sum of specificity and sensitivity.Results LA was the best single predictor for PBI with the highest prediction accuracy(1.360 1),and the area under of the ROC curve(AUC)is0.654 0,followed by APWSn(1.336 3)with AUC=0.6342.The optimal predictor among all possible combinations for PBI was the combination of LA,PA,LP,WT,MPWS and MPWSn with prediction accuracy=1.414 6(AUC=0.715 8).LA was once again the best single predictor for PAI with the highest prediction accuracy(1.184 6)with AUC=0.606 4,followed by MPWSn(1. 183 2)with AUC=0.6084.The combination of PA,PB,WT,MPWS,MPWSn and APWSn gave the best prediction accuracy(1.302 5)for PAI,and the AUC value is 0.6657.PA was the best single predictor for WTI with highest prediction accuracy(1.288 7)with AUC=0.641 5,followed by WT(1.254 0),with AUC=0.6097.The combination of PA,PB,WT,LP,MinCT,MPWS and MPWS was the best predictor for WTI with prediction accuracy as 1.314 0,with AUC=0.6552.This indicated that PBI was a more predictable measure than WTI and PAI. The combinational predictors improved prediction accuracy by 9.95%,4.01%and 1.96%over the best single predictors for PAI,PBI and WTI(AUC values improved by9.78%,9.45%,and 2.14%),respectively.Conclusions The use of GLMM with 5-fold cross-validation strategy combining both morphological and biomechanical risk factors could potentially improve the accuracy of carotid plaque progression prediction.This study suggests that a linear combination of multiple predictors can provide potential improvement to existing plaque assessment schemes.
基金Project(52161135301)supported by the International Cooperation and Exchange of the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(202306370296)supported by China Scholarship Council。
文摘Rockburst is a common geological disaster in underground engineering,which seriously threatens the safety of personnel,equipment and property.Utilizing machine learning models to evaluate risk of rockburst is gradually becoming a trend.In this study,the integrated algorithms under Gradient Boosting Decision Tree(GBDT)framework were used to evaluate and classify rockburst intensity.First,a total of 301 rock burst data samples were obtained from a case database,and the data were preprocessed using synthetic minority over-sampling technique(SMOTE).Then,the rockburst evaluation models including GBDT,eXtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost),Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LightGBM),and Categorical Features Gradient Boosting(CatBoost)were established,and the optimal hyperparameters of the models were obtained through random search grid and five-fold cross-validation.Afterwards,use the optimal hyperparameter configuration to fit the evaluation models,and analyze these models using test set.In order to evaluate the performance,metrics including accuracy,precision,recall,and F1-score were selected to analyze and compare with other machine learning models.Finally,the trained models were used to conduct rock burst risk assessment on rock samples from a mine in Shanxi Province,China,and providing theoretical guidance for the mine's safe production work.The models under the GBDT framework perform well in the evaluation of rockburst levels,and the proposed methods can provide a reliable reference for rockburst risk level analysis and safety management.
基金the National Key Research and Development Program (2018YFD0500704-03)Proiect of Ministry of Agriculture and Rura Affairs (SK201707)。
文摘The automatic control of cleaning need to be based on the total amount of manure in the house. Therefore, this article established a prediction model for the total amount of manure in a pig house and took the number of pigs in the house, age, feed intake,feeding time, the time when the ammonia concentration increased the fastest and the daily fixed cleaning time as variable factors for modelling, so that the model could obtain the current manure output according to the real-time input of time. A Backpropagation(BP) neural network was used for training. The cross-validation method was used to select the best hyperparameters, and the genetic algorithm(GA), particle swarm optimization(PSO) algorithm and mind evolutionary algorithm(MEA) were selected to optimize the initial network weights. The results showed that the model could predict the amount of manure in real-time according to the model input. After the cross-validation method determined the hyperparameters, the GA, PSO and MEA were used to optimize the manure prediction model. The GA had the best average performance.
