摘要
本文利用多种气象数据资料对2023年7月11~13日鲁西南地区一次暴雨过程的降水特征和成因进行分析,进而得出鲁西南地区2023年7月11~13日暴雨过程的可能原因。研究结果表明,这是一次副热带高压外围的暖湿气流和切变线共同影响下的强降水过程。副热带高压提供了不稳定能量和源源不断的水汽,短波槽和低层切变线是动力条件,造成了此次局地的大暴雨过程。中尺度模式预报对此次降水的极端性有很高的警示作用,对于短时强降水的预报给予了很大的参考。暴雨极值中心位置和强度预报、小时极端强降水的预报预警能力还需要进一步地研究,地形等是否对此次暴雨过程有影响仍需探究。
The precipitation characteristics and causes of a rainstorm process in southwest Shandong on July 11~13, 2023 are analyzed by using a variety of meteorological data, and then the possible causes of the rainstorm process in southwest Shandong on July 11~13, 2023 are obtained. The research results indicate that this is a heavy precipitation process under the combined influence of warm and humid airflow and shear lines around the periphery of the subtropical high pressure. The subtropical high provides unstable energy and continuous water vapor. The short wave trough and low level shear line are dynamic conditions, which caused the local heavy rainstorm process. The mesoscale model forecast has a high warning effect on the extreme nature of this precipitation and provides a great reference for short-term heavy rainfall forecasting. The prediction of the location and intensity of the extreme value center of rainstorm, and the prediction and early warning ability of hourly extreme heavy rainfall still need to be further studied, and whether topography has an impact on the rainstorm process still needs to be explored.
出处
《气候变化研究快报》
2024年第4期1009-1015,共7页
Climate Change Research Letters
