摘要
预应力混凝土桥梁施工期间的变形受诸多因素影响而显现出较大的离散性 ,因此将挠度计算视为不确定性问题是合适的。在建立挠度计算的确定性模型基础上 ,运用 Monte Carlo方法进行数字抽样 ,预先找出挠度分布的一般先验信息 ,再结合具体梁的有限监测样本信息 ,采用贝叶斯方法 ,得到了预应力混凝土梁挠度的后验分布 ,其不确定性大为减少 ,为其后期挠度的预测提供了较为准确地估计。通过实际观测预应力混凝土梁的反拱 ,验证了所提出方法的准确性。
In order to control the alignment of prestressed concrete bridge during construction,it is reasonable to treat the prediction of the deflection as an uncertainty.The paper presents a Bayesian updating approach to predict the deflection of prestressed concrete girders.A prior distribution is developed by the use of Monte Carlo simulation with a proposed deterministic model under varieties of prestressing levels,material properties and environmental conditions.The poster distribution is then obtained by updating the prior distribution based on a limited number of measurements.The uncertainty of the deflection prediction is also greatly reduced.The method is used to predict the camber of two actual prestressed T girders and satisfied predictions are obtained.
出处
《武汉理工大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
2004年第6期32-34,共3页
Journal of Wuhan University of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金 (10 372 0 75 )
关键词
预应力
挠度
贝叶斯方法
预测
prestressing
deflection
Bayesian approach
prediction
