摘要
针对对外贸易是否促进了经济增长的争论 ,本文根据 1 978- 2 0 0 1年上海的出口、进口和国民生产总值的数据 ,利用协整检验和因果关系检验等计量方法 ,对三者的关系进行了检验 ,结果发现三者之间存在长期稳定的关系 ,出口与国民生产总值 ,出口与进口之间分别存在着互为因果的双向联系 ,表明上海经济增长是出口导向型的。
Regarding the controversy about whether foreign trade improves economic growth, this paper employs the measurement of co integration test and causality test to examine the relationship among import, export and GDP according to their respective data from 1978 to 2001 in Shanghai. It discovers that there is long term equilibrium among import, export and economic growth, mutual causality relationship respectively, between export and GDP, and between export and import, indicating that economic growth in Shanghai is export inducing.
出处
《上海财经大学学报》
2004年第2期38-44,共7页
Journal of Shanghai University of Finance and Economics
