摘要
随着管理实践问题的日趋复杂,基于现代信息技术的大群体决策已成为近年来备受关注的重点研究课题。为了解决现有大群体决策方法中并未考虑专家知识结构影响的问题,首先从领域性、不完备性、可靠性三个视角对该类决策问题的性质和特征进行了描述和界定,并应用基本信任分配函数提出了不完备性推断信息的提取机理,然后以证据推理规则为技术基础,分别结合补偿性和非补偿性融合策略提出了对专家个体和专家群体的推断信息进行融合的方法和定理,在此基础上遵循先个体融合后群体融合的思路构建了考虑专家知识结构的大群体决策方法步骤,最后应用数值对比分析验证了提出方法的科学性和有效性。创新之处不仅体现在推断信息提取机理能够充分反映专家知识结构的影响,而且还体现在融合方法考虑了属性权重和专家可靠性的性质差异,可以反映属性信息之间的补偿性以及专家信息之间的非补偿性。这为提高和保证大群体决策的效率和效果将起到重要支撑作用。
With management practice problems becoming more and more complex,the large-group decision making based on modern information technology has been a noteworthy research topic recently.The largegroup decision making may be influenced by expert's knowledge structure,which is not considered in existing methods.In order to solve above problem,the properties and characteristics are described and defined from three perspectives such as territoriality,incompleteness and reliability,and the mechanism for extracting incomplete inference information is presented by applying basic belief assignment function.Then the methods and theorems are constructed for fusing inference information of individual expert and expert's group respectively with compensatory strategy and non-compensatory strategy,both of which are technologically based on evidence reasoning rule.The procedure of multiple attribute large-group decision-making method with incomplete information by considering expert's knowledge structure is proposed by following the fusion thought that"from individual fusion to group fusion".The numerical comparison analysis shows the proposed method is scientific and effective finally.The innovation points of the proposed method are not only to reflect the influences by expert's knowledge structure within the mechanism for extracting incomplete inference information,but also to distinguish the differences between expert reliabilities and attribute weights and reflect the compensatory among attributes and the non-compensatory among experts.This will play an important supporting role in improving and ensuring the efficiency and effectiveness of large group decision making.
出处
《中国管理科学》
CSSCI
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第12期167-178,共12页
Chinese Journal of Management Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(71462022
71261011)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项(201762026)
山东省软科学研究计划重点项目(2016RZE29001)
泰山学者工程专项经费资助项目
关键词
知识结构
大群体决策
多属性决策
不完备性决策
不确定性决策
knowledge structure
large-group decision making
multiple attribute decision-making
incomplete decision-making
decision making under uncertainty
