摘要
以大兴安岭南瓮河国家级自然保护区落叶松-白桦混交林的阳坡和阴坡2种林分为研究对象,监测2种林分在不同防火期的地表可燃物含水率的动态变化,采用基于平衡含水率和时滞的直接估计法,分析防火期和坡向对地表可燃物含水率预测模型精度的影响。结果显示:不同防火期林内气象因子(防火期影响)及林分郁闭度(坡向影响)不同,地表可燃物含水率变化呈现差异(P<0.05),秋季>春季,阳坡>阴坡。在构建的地表可燃物含水率预测模型中,秋季防火期预测模型精度优于春季防火期预测模型精度,阳坡预测模型精度优于阴坡预测模型精度。因而,在进行森林火险预测预报时,需考虑坡向和防火期对可燃物含水率的影响,分别建立不同的预测模型,将有助于提高火险预测预报精度。
To provide a basis for improving the prediction accuracy of surface ground fuel moisture content,we monitored the dynamics of water content of the surface ground fuel and the meteorological factors in Larix gmelinii-Betula platyphylla mixed forests in both shady slope and sunny slope in Nanwenghe National Natural Reserve of Daxing’an Mountains with different fire prevention periods.The direct estimation method based on equilibrium moisture content and timelag was used to analyze the effects of different fire prevention periods and slope aspects on the accuracy of the prediction model for estimating surface ground fuel moisture content.The results showed that water content of ground fuel differed with fire prevention periods and slope aspects,being greater in autumn than in spring and greater in the sunny slope than in the shady slope.In the predicted models of surface ground fuel moisture content,prediction accuracy for autumn fire prevention period was better than that for spring fire prevention period,and that for the sunny slope was better than for the shady slope.The effects of slope aspects and fire prevention periods on water content of surface ground fuel should be taken into account to establish different prediction models in forest fire risk prediction,which will help improve the accuracy of fire risk prediction.
作者
胡海清
罗碧珍
罗斯生
孙龙
HU Hai-qing;LUO Bi-zhen;LUO Si-sheng;SUN Long(College of Forestry,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,China)
出处
《生态学杂志》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期1314-1321,共8页
Chinese Journal of Ecology
基金
国家林业公益性行业科研专项项目(201404402)
国家自然科学基金项目(31470657)
广西自然科学基金项目(2014GXNSFBA118108)资助
关键词
地表可燃物
可燃物含水率
预测精度
防火期
坡向
surface ground fuel
fuel moisture
prediction accuracy
fire prevention period
aspect of slope
作者简介
通讯作者:罗斯生,E-mail:sisheng8009@126.com;胡海清,男,1961年生,博士,教授,博导,从事森林生态与林火管理研究,E-mail:huhq@nefu.edu.cn
