摘要
基于农业生产中的6个方面测算了河南省1993—2014年的农业碳排放量和排放强度。22年来河南省农业碳排放总量由1993年的495.12万t增加到2014年的1 704.13万t,年均增长6.12%,总体上呈"高速—低速—高速—低速"四阶段演化特征,农业碳排放强度从1993年的720.60kg/hm^2增加到2014年的2 080.23kg/hm^2,年均增长5.28%。河南省农业碳排放总量与经济发展呈典型的倒"U"型曲线关系,且开始出现拐点,但不明显。农业碳排放总量的组成结构随时间变化,从平均占比情况来看碳排放组成依次为农村用电、化肥、农膜、农药、农用柴油和翻耕。运用Tapio脱钩模型计算了河南省农业碳排放的脱钩弹性系数,结果显示,2004年前农业碳排放与农业经济发展的脱钩关系呈现弱脱钩、扩张负脱钩、扩张连接和强负脱钩4种弹性特征并存,2004年后以弱脱钩为主导,占比81.82%,说明近年来河南省在农业碳减排方面取得了一定成效,未来河南省还须采取措施,从根本上实现农业碳排放与农业经济增长脱钩。
Based on six kinds of factors of agricultural production,the total agricultural carbon emissions were calculated in He'nan Province during the period from 1993 to 2014.The results indicate that the amount of agricultural carbon emission showed a gradual upward trend in 22 years,which increased from 4.951 2 million tons in 1993 to 17.041 3 million tons in 2014,the average annual growth rate was 6.12%,in general,it can be divided into four periods:rapid growth period,slow growth period,rapid growth period,and slow growth period.The intensity of carbon emission increased from 720.60kg/hm^2 in 1993 to 2080.23kg/hm^2 in 2014,the average annual growth rate was 5.28%.The relationship between agricultural carbon emission and economic development presented typical inverted‘U'type curve,and the inflection point had appeared,but it was not obvious.The structure of agricultural carbon emissions changed with time,the average proportion rural electricity was the largest carbon source,followed by chemical fertilizer,agricultural plastic film,agricultural pesticide,agricultural diesel oil and plowing.Meanwhile,we calculated the decoupling elasticity using Tapio decoupling model,indicating that Henan′s carbon emissions and economic development of agricultural presented a variety of decoupling elasticities before 2004,including weak decoupling,expansion of negative decoupling,expansion connection and strong negative decoupling,leading to weak decoupling asthe dominant state after 2004,accounting for 81.82%,which indicates that a certain of success has been achieved in reducing agricultural carbon emission in He′nan Province.Effective measures should be taken to achieve the decoupling between agricultural carbon emissions and economic development.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2017年第5期272-278,共7页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
河南省高等学校重点科研项目(16A170006)
河南省科技计划项目(152102310088)
关键词
农业碳排放
经济增长
环境库兹涅茨曲线
脱钩效应
河南省
agricultural carbon emissions
economic development
environmental Kuznets curve
decoupling effect
He′nan Province
