摘要
收集了呼伦湖流域1960—2014年的逐日气温、降水、蒸发和相对湿度数据,提取了包括年平均、季节平均值及极端天气等9个指标,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、线性倾向估计法以及5a滑动平均等方法在年和季节尺度上分析了该地区的气候变化趋势,并利用Pearson相关系数探究这四个气象要素之间的相关性。结果表明:(1)年气温显著上升,降水变化不显著,蒸发显著减少,相对湿度显著降低,气候向暖干化方向发展。(2)春夏秋季温度、蒸发和相对湿度的变化趋势与年相同,最大升温速率发生在春季,每十年上升0.43℃,冬季变化均不显著。(3)平均降水和极端降水在冬春季节都显著增加,然而夏季降水以最大幅度减少,并且夏季持续时间较长的极端降水减少显著。(4)夏季气温升高最显著,相对湿度显著降低,容易发生干旱。冬季极端降水增多则可能导致雪灾加剧。
The changes of nine meteorological indicators on temperature,precipitation,evaporation and relative humidity from 1960 to 2014in Hulun Lake basin were analyzed at the scales of year and season.The results show that:(1)annual temperature significantly increased but evaporation and relative humidity decreased significantly,the variation of annual precipitation was insignificant,these results indicated that the climate in this area became warmer and drier;(2)the variation of temperature,evaporation and relative humidity in spring,summer and autumn are similar to their interannual variations,the maximum rate of mean temperature rise occurred in spring with 0.43℃/decade,however,variations of the three meteorological elements were not significant in winter;(3)the mean precipitation and extreme precipitation increased significantly in both winter and spring,but in summer the precipitation decreased,especially the long-time extreme precipitation which decreased significantly;(4)summer climate in this area became much drier because of significant increase in temperature and decrease in relative humidity.The increasing extreme precipitation in winter would cause snow disaster in this area.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2016年第6期174-178,184,共6页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室(江西师范大学)开放基金资助项目(PK2014003)
国家自然科学基金(51409216)
关键词
气候变化
气象要素
呼伦湖流域
气温
干旱
climate change
meteorological element
Hulun Lake Basin
temperature
drought
