摘要
以上海市老龄化、高龄化和"渐富快老"趋势日益显著为背景,按照基金收支平衡原则,在分析影响上海市城镇职工养老保险基金收入和支出因素基础上,应用灰色关联度方法选取影响因素,通过GM(1, N)模型建立微分方程进行可控性和稳定性分析.结果表明上海市城镇职工养老保险基金收入和支出是可控的和稳定的,要想保证基金在可控性范围内平稳运营,必须遵循系统论的规则,促进系统内各要素优化配置,通过控制人口机械增长率、扩大城镇职工参保率、提高缴费基数、适当降低养老金替代率等途径,实现养老保险制度的可持续发展.
Aging,advanced aging and'increasingly rich and fast old'trend in Shanghai is becoming increasingly significant as the background,according to the principle of fund balance,based on the analysis of the factors affecting the income and expenditure of the basic pension fund in Shanghai,selected influencing factors by grey relational grade.Establishing differential equations to analyze the controllability and stability by GM(1,N)model.The results show that the income and expenditure of the basic pension insurance funds in Shanghai are controllable and stable,in order to ensure the smooth operation of the fund within the controllability,it is indispensable to follow the rules of system theory and promote the optimization of the allocation of the elements within the system.Through the control of population growth rate,the expansion of urban workers’participation rate,the improvement of the payment base,the appropriate reduction of pension replacement rate and other ways to achieve the sustainable development of the pension system.
作者
李红艳
万桃
吴忠
万萍
LI Hong-yan;WAN Tao;WU Zhong;WAN Ping(College of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China;College of Management,University of Shanghai for Science and Technology,Shanghai 200093,China)
出处
《数学的实践与认识》
北大核心
2019年第7期20-27,共8页
Mathematics in Practice and Theory
基金
教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(15JDZ028)
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金(16YJCZH043)
上海市自然科学基金科研计划项目(16ZR1414000)
上海市人才发展资金资助(201671)
作者简介
通信作者:吴忠
